Preview: UFC 293 ‘Adesanya vs. Strickland’

There are things to like about UFC 293, but the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to Sydney on Saturday does stand out as the clear weakest pay-per-view of 2023 thus far. At the very least, Israel Adesanya is back in action for his latest middleweight title defense, though he winds up facing Sean Strickland in what seems like a one-sided affair. The co-headliner might provide the most intrigue on the main card, as Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov look to stake their claim to heavyweight contender status in a fight that is legitimately interesting on paper. Beyond that, there is a Manel Kape showcase—another case where late cancellations hurt the depth of this lineup—and a heavyweight banger between Justin Tafa and Austen Lane that should at least be fun for however long it lasts.

Now to the UFC 293 ‘Adesanya vs. Strickland’ preview:

UFC Middleweight Championship

#5 P4P | Israel Adesanya (24-2, 13-2 UFC) vs. #5 MW | Sean Strickland (27-5, 14-5 UFC)

ODDS: Adesanya (-650), Strickland (+470)

With his feud against Alex Pereira now in the rearview mirror for the time being, the UFC turns back to Adesanya turning away all comers at middleweight. It is worth remembering exactly how much of a prodigy “The Last Stylebender” was when he transitioned from kickboxer to full-time mixed martial artist after dabbling in the sport. Signed in early 2018, Adesanya had shored up his defensive wrestling by his third fight in the UFC, then went on a charge and became undisputed middleweight champion in less than 20 months. From there, Adesanya was essentially a promoter’s dream as a marketable star willing to stay busy and take on anyone, even if there were some clear misfires along the way. An attempt to win the light heavyweight crown saw Adesanya get neutralized by Jan Blachowicz, and, in general, his championship reign saw him transition to a more cautious and defensive style that resulted in some interminable, one-sided title defenses. That made the Pereira feud a shot in the arm just when Adesanya’s campaign needed it the most. Adesanya’s old kickboxing rival clearly took him out of his comfort zone, knocking him out before he regained the title in cathartic fashion in April. With Pereira now up at light heavyweight, Adesanya is the clear favorite to beat the rest of the field, and Dricus Du Plessis seemed to be the obvious next title challenger with his win over Robert Whittaker in July. However, with Du Plessis too injured to fight in September and the UFC needing an opponent for Adesanya in Sydney, it was Strickland who wound up in the right place at the right time.

Formerly an unremarkable welterweight prospect, Strickland came back from a career-threatening motorcycle accident as a much better fighter in 2020, bulking up to middleweight and finding comfort as a pressure-oriented bully. It is an interesting approach, banking on the experience that Strickland has put together since starting his pro career as a teenager. Strickland fights with an upright stance that allows him to throw out volume and swamp his opponents, but it forces him to rely on his defensive vision to avoid eating a knockout punch on his wide-open chin. It has worked a whole lot more often than it has failed, though Strickland’s 2022 loss to Pereira was almost impressive in how much he stuck to his usual approach, marching down an elite kickboxer when it figured to do little but get him knocked out, which is exactly what happened. Strickland has rebounded well enough in the year-plus since without adding much in the way of new wrinkles; and while Adesanya may not have Pereira’s one-shot power, it is hard not to see this going the same way, with Strickland essentially wading in and providing the champion with some target practice. It may take a while for Adesanya to pour on enough damage to end this, but it looks like one-way traffic. The pick is Adesanya via third-round knockout.

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Adesanya vs. Strickland
Volkov vs. Tuivasa
Kape vs. dos Santos
Tafa vs. Lane
Turkalj vs. Pedro
The Prelims