Preview: UFC 296 ‘Edwards vs. Covington’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship typically tries to end the year on a high note, and the promotion certainly seems to have come through with UFC 296 on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This looks like a stacked card on paper and represents a big night for the welterweight division. Beyond a main event that sees Leon Edwards defend his title against Colby Covington, a top rising contender looks for a breakthrough win at 170 pounds, as Shavkat Rakhmonov meets Stephen Thompson in a pivotal three-round showcase. Elsewhere, Alexandre Pantoja’s flyweight title defense against Brandon Royval should provide plenty of action in the co-headliner, and while Paddy Pimblett’s lightweight affair against Tony Ferguson inspires a bit of cynicism in terms of matchmaking, it should at least have an electric atmosphere as a backdrop.

Now to the UFC 296 “Edwards vs. Covington” preview:

UFC Welterweight Championship

#4 P4P | Leon Edwards (21-3, 13-2 UFC) vs. #3 WW | Colby Covington (17-3, 12-3 UC)

ODDS: Edwards (-148), Covington (+124)

Sixteen months later, it is still a bit hard to believe how much Edwards changed the narrative of his career in one moment. Advertised as a knockout artist coming off the English scene in 2014, “Rocky” had a rough start to his UFC career, losing grimy bouts to Claudio Silva and Kamaru Usman in two of his first four fights. Edwards slowly regrouped and worked his way up the ladder, racking up wins while going under the radar for a variety of reasons. Edwards’ fights were essentially reserved for cards in Europe that often did not get much notice, and he was rarely in a featured spot. Despite his advertised dynamism as a prospect, he typically settled into a well-rounded and conservative style that got a lot of work done in the clinch. The UFC finally pulled the promotional trigger on Edwards with a main event spot against Donald Cerrone in Singapore back in 2018, but that started the ongoing thread of his becoming an afterthought even as he kept racking up clear victories. Edwards handily took a decision over Cerrone, but the talk afterwards mostly centered around Cerrone putting in a game late-career performance while battling through illness. It is almost impressive how Edwards continually managed to tread promotional water in his next four fights. A co-main event win over Gunnar Nelson seemed to set Edwards up for a grudge match with Jorge Masvidal, only for “Gamebred” to achieve viral fame with his knockout of Ben Askren and move on to bigger things. A dominant headlining win over Rafael dos Anjos seemed to finally get Edwards over the hump as a title contender, only for the coronavirus pandemic to strand him in England and stall out his career for 18 months. Edwards looked excellent in his return fight against Belal Muhammad—until an inadvertent eye poke ended the fight in a second-round no contest. Then he handily beat Nate Diaz in his most high-profile fight to date, only for “The Ultimate Fighter 5” winner to stun Edwards in the closing moments of the fight and essentially erase the previous 24 minutes in everyone’s mind. However, by August 2022, Usman was reigning as longtime welterweight champion and Edwards was the clear best contender left, having ridden a 10-fight undefeated streak since their bout six and a half years prior. For about 24 minutes of their rematch, Usman clearly established himself as the better man. Edwards had his moments, particularly early on, but Usman eventually asserted his dominance—particularly with his wrestling—to the point that the challenger was seemingly checked out by the fifth round. Then Edwards blasted Usman with the shot of a lifetime—a left kick to the side of the head—that handed him one of the biggest wins in UFC history and the welterweight title. A rematch left no doubt that Edwards was now an elite fighter. He is still far from an aggressive dynamo, but he fought with some newfound confidence and threw out a lot more offense in response to Usman’s constant pressure. For being around as long as he has, Edwards is still just 32 years old and in the prime of his career, though fending off the rising crop of fresh young contenders at 170 pounds might prove difficult. For now, he has to take on Covington in what might be the American’s last hurrah.

During the latter half of the 2010s, Usman and Covington seemed destined to take over the welterweight division as the two most promising prospects at 170 pounds. Both former collegiate wrestling standouts, they made their hay as dedicated grinders before eventually taking separate paths as their careers developed. Usman put in the work to become a more well-rounded striker and pick his spots with knockout power, while Covington doubled down on pace and pressure to swamp his opponents with takedowns and striking volume. A 2017 win over Demian Maia proved to be a breakthrough moment in Covington’s career for multiple reasons. A post-fight interview is where “Chaos” landed on the right-wing persona that has given him most of his promotional steam, and the fight itself showed that Covington could win as a fast-paced striker without having to pivot back to his wrestling. By the end of 2019, Usman had won the welterweight title from Tyron Woodley, with Covington lined up as his clear next challenger. The result was an excellent affair—a shockingly fast-paced and violent striking war that saw the two trade hands for the better part of 24 minutes, until Usman scored the knockout and reportedly left Covington with a broken jaw. Covington’s career has been a mixed bag since, as he has only fought once per calendar year; and while he has remained successful enough to make it back to what figures to be one last title shot, his best form still clearly appears to be behind him. Covington rebounded from his first loss to Usman with a win over Woodley where neither man looked all that impressive. Woodley was clearly past the point of consistent effectiveness, while Covington spent a lot of time flirting with a more range-heavy striking style that minimized a lot of his best gifts. A rematch with Usman went much the same way, with Covington fighting behind an ill-fitting approach to start. However, Covington did at least eventually adjust and pivot back to his pressuring style, though not effectively enough to walk away with the victory. Covington’s last fight, a March 2022 headlining win over Masvidal, was dominant but not overwhelmingly promising. Covington managed to lean on his wrestling whenever he needed it but lacked a lot of the constant aggression and athletic snap that marked his prior peak performances. Even with Covington looking diminished, this could still be a tricky title defense for Edwards. Covington is still dogged and durable, and while Edwards showed some career-best form in his most recent fight, it will be interesting to see how much of that newfound confidence carries forward against an opponent who is not Usman. The 2019 version of Covington would have made for an excellent scrap against this current version of Edwards, who can still generally be described as a passive fighter. However, with Covington coming off a nearly two-year layoff and seemingly on the athletic downswing, this looks like a fight where the champion can consistently stay ahead in potentially ugly fashion. The pick is Edwards via decision.

Jump To »
Edwards vs. Covington
Pantoja vs. Royval
Rakhmonov vs. Thompson
Pimblett vs. Ferguson
The Prelims