Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Mendes vs. Lamas’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to its flagship platform on Fox Sports 1 with an excellent card that is much better than its last several offerings, which were devastated by repeated injuries and shallow bookings. In the main event, Chad Mendes attempts to get back in the winner’s column following his five-round war with Jose Aldo, as he faces the venomous Ricardo Lamas, who can make a run at another title shot with an impressive victory.

Underneath the headliners, the card offers a nice combination of action fights, veterans with name value and young fighters on the rise. Al Iaquinta takes on Jorge Masvidal in what promises to be a barnburner in the co-headliner, while “The Ultimate Fighter” winner Michael Chiesa attempts to rebound against Mitch Clarke. Elsewhere, Gray Maynard gets one last chance to resurrect his career on the undercard, and title challenger Liz Carmouche gets top billing on the preliminaries.

This is about as good as a Fox Sports 1 card gets these days. Let us take a look at each matchup at UFC Fight Night “Mendes vs. Lamas” on Saturday at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Va.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Chad Mendes (16-2, 7-2 UFC) vs. Ricardo Lamas (15-3, 6-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: This should be an excellent matchup of two of the featherweight division’s very best. Mendes, an All-American wrestler and two-time title challenger, is undefeated but for his two run-ins with champion Jose Aldo. He attempts to get back on track against Lamas, who suffered his own defeat against Aldo in February 2014. Since then, Lamas has won a pair of fights against Hacran Dias and the rising Dennis Bermudez.

The winner will have an excellent claim on a high-level opponent and potentially another shot at the division’s kingpin, whether that is Aldo or Conor McGregor.

An off-the-charts athlete, Mendes has evolved into one of the division’s most devastating punchers, with wallop in both hands. He has a number of equally effective setups for his power punches, primarily his left hook, right uppercut and right hook. He can cut an angle and dart in with a single shot from long range, feint to draw out a shot and then counter with combinations in the pocket or chop the legs with low kicks while his opponent is worried about the threat of his hands. Mendes does them all with great speed and the worst intentions. Between his speed, command of distance, head movement and quick pivots, he is also quite difficult to hit, which helps him maintain a relatively slow and measured pace throughout the fight.

While he prefers to strike these days, Mendes can always fall back on his awesome wrestling. He sets up his shots beautifully with punches, gets tremendous drive and lift and finishes his preferred doubles with authority. The front headlock is a specialty, and he controls his opponents with ease while working quick back takes and the occasional guillotine choke. Mendes’ defensive wrestling has thus far proved impenetrable, as he has never been taken down in a fight. From top position, he is more of a grinder or rinse-and-repeat takedown machine than a dedicated control artist, but he can eat up chunks of time and break his opponent’s rhythm effectively.

Lamas thrives on chaos. I do not mean he is some sort of wild brawler: He does his very best work in transitions and scrambles, especially when his opponent is hurt or otherwise screws up. Lamas’ killer instinct is some of the best in the sport, and he relies on it to exploit the smallest openings and finish fights. When viewed in isolation, his individual skill sets are solid and powered by excellent athleticism, but nothing stands out as truly outstanding. He hits fairly hard, takes good angles and strings together two-strike combinations with an emphasis on chopping kicks. He is a good wrestler, though his takedown defense is not impenetrable and he lacks an ultra-quick shot or great chains. From top position, however, Lamas is a monster, and that is his one truly top-notch skill set. His posture is impossible to break, his base is heavy and he drops vicious punches and elbows. He can pass quickly and owns a particularly slick arm-triangle. From his back, Lamas is decent and owns a solid arsenal of sweeps and submissions, but he plays guard too readily instead of standing back up.

BETTING ODDS: Mendes (-425), Lamas (+320)

THE PICK: I think this will be a solid and highly technical fight, if not a barnburner, due to both fighters’ tendency to fall into a relatively slow pace. On paper, beating Lamas is relatively straightforward given his lack of a truly dominating facet in his game; in practice, however, his ability to capitalize on even the smallest mistake is preternatural and makes him much more dangerous than his skills alone would otherwise suggest. Still, everything suggests that Mendes will be too much for Lamas to handle in every phase. He is a harder puncher, works at a quicker pace, is sounder defensively and will dictate where the fight takes place by virtue of his vastly superior wrestling. I think Mendes will drop hard shots on Lamas, especially on the counter, and control large portions of the fight from top position. A knockout for Mendes is certainly a possibility, but the pick is for the Team Alpha Male representative to win by unanimous decision.

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