Preview: UFC on ESPN 34 ‘Luque vs. Muhammad 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will return to the UFC Apex for the first time in more than a month, and UFC on ESPN 34 comes with the expected step down in star power for what should still be a worthwhile exercise. In terms of relevance, this one is all about the headliner: a rematch that sees Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad run back their 2016 encounter, this time with potential welterweight title implications attached. Beyond that, the highlights of the main card can also be found at 170 pounds, as Miguel Baeza faces Andre Fialho and Mounir Lazzez takes on Ange Loose in bouts that should guarantee action. Meanwhile, Mayra Bueno Silva’s move to bantamweight carries some intrigue, and the co-main event features promotional newcomers Caio Borralho and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 34 “Luque vs. Muhammad 2” preview:

Welterweights

#5 WW | Vicente Luque (21-7-1, 14-3 UFC) vs. #6 WW | Belal Muhammad (20-3, 11-3 UFC)

BETUS ODDS: Luque (-180), Muhammad (+150)

Luque and Muhammad have each come a long way since their first fight. Both men were promising prospects heading into UFC 205, but their bout was an afterthought on a historically stacked card that also served as the promotion’s Madison Square Garden debut. Plus, it was not much of an actual fight, as Luque blasted Muhammad in short order and earned a knockout victory in just 79 seconds. That marked the fourth straight win for “The Silent Assassin”—all via finish—in a run that began to mark him as one of the promotion’s most reliably exciting fighters, and it has been mostly uphill in the five-plus years since. Luque actually dropped his next bout, a decision loss to fellow current contender Leon Edwards, but he has since won 10 of his last 11 fights, proving that he is a natural fighter in the process. Luque’s approach is built entirely around pressure and offense, which has turned all of his fights into brutal wars of attrition. Thankfully for him, he appears to have an inhuman level of durability that has allowed him to outlast almost all of his opponents. Going toe-to-toe against sluggers like Niko Price and Mike Perry seems like the worst idea possible, but Luque has somehow consistently made it work. His only loss during this current streak was in a 2019 battle against Stephen Thompson, which saw Luque cause plenty of damage while “Wonderboy” was consistently outmaneuvering him. His 2021 campaign also served as a nice reminder that while Luque is capable of drowning his opponents on the feet, he is just as lethal on the mat. Landing his signature brabo choke on Tyron Woodley was an inevitability by that point in their fight, but it was legitimately impressive to see him catch Michael Chiesa with the same technique to affirm himself as a contender back in August. The welterweight division is finally going through some much-needed churn, and Luque figures to be near the front of the line when it comes to fresh contenders, considering the violent style that he brings to the table. However, he needs to first get past Muhammad once again.

Initially, Muhammad’s loss to Luque seemed like a worrying sign that “Remember The Name” might not find much UFC success, as it marked his second loss in three trips to the Octagon. Muhammad was a top prospect when the UFC picked him up for a late-notice bout earlier in 2016, but his well-rounded and building style seemed like it might be best suited for regional championship fights rather than the three-round relative sprints he would need to win to make his way up the ladder. Nevertheless, Muhammad has still slowly marched his way up the ranks. Not a standout athlete, he has made up for any physical deficiencies with technical acumen and smart game planning, showing an impressive capability to tailor his approach effectively to whatever his opponent brings to the table. Like his counterpart, Muhammad has only suffered one loss since their first fight—he fell short in a 2019 bout against Geoff Neal—but while Luque’s fights have mostly followed the same template, it has been a delight watching Muhammad mix things up depending on his opponent. A 2020 win over Lyman Good was the best range performance of Muhammad’s career, while his last fight—a December victory over Thompson—saw Muhammad pivot to a wrestling-heavy approach that proved shockingly effective. There are still some worries about whether Muhammad can reach the championship level given some of the powerhouses at 170 pounds, but at this point, it is hard to doubt that he may find a way.

Even with this being a rematch, this is a difficult fight to read. Facing an opponent who can often be as one-dimensional as Luque should provide a lot of opportunity for Muhammad, but having to cope with the consistent aggression and firepower that the Brazilian brings to bear also seems like a tough task for the Palestinian-American. Even with his adaptability, Muhammad is at his most comfortable applying pressure and pace, with an increased focus on his wrestling in recent bouts. All of that seems like a poor idea here. Luque has yet to lose a war of attrition and may set the higher pace, and while Muhammad could find some success taking this to the mat, Luque’s submission game also presents a giant threat. As a result, this seems like a fight where Muhammad will have to call back to his game plan against Good. To his credit, Muhammad managed to effectively fight completely against type, but that was also a relatively even affair based on volume where he enjoyed some wrestling success. Given the havoc that Luque can wreak when given an opening, Muhammad will essentially have to fight a perfect fight over five rounds with the difference in horsepower between the two. While Muhammad is more capable of doing so than most, the bet is that Luque can find moments to make this his type of fight over the course of 25 minutes. While Muhammad has impressive cardio, Luque might even be able to outpace him here given the constant threat that he provides. The thought is that Luque can get the ball rolling towards a fight-ending barrage by the championship round. The pick is Luque via fourth-round stoppage.

Continue Reading » Omargadzhiev vs. Borralho

BetUS.com is offering our listeners an incredible 125% bonus on their deposit for UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2. Use code SHERDOG and get $2500 in extra money to make fight night even better.