Preview: UFC on ESPN 36 Prelims

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s latest effort at the UFC Apex features only five prelims on Saturday in Las Vegas, but it is a strong batch of fights. In terms of stakes, the women take center stage at UFC on ESPN 36. Viviane Araujo and Andrea Lee take the featured slot in a flyweight showdown that looks quite important in a division in need of fresh challengers, while Angela Hill and Virna Jandiroba look to stay relevant in a deep strawweight class further down the card. Meanwhile, A lightweight affair between Michael Johnson and Alan Patrick is well-matched enough to be oddly interesting, and some impressive young talent kicks off festivities. Top Japanese flyweight prospect Tatsuro Taira finally makes his UFC debut, and while the Nick Maximov-Andre Petroski opener figures to be an ugly exercise, both men carry considerable upside.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 36 “Blachowicz vs. Rakic” preview:

Women’s Flyweights

#9 FLW | Andrea Lee (13-5, 5-3 UFC) vs. #8 FLW | Viviane Araujo (10-3, 4-2 UFC)

ODDS: Lee (-115), Araujo (-105)

This would have been an interesting pairing at most points, but the time seems particularly right for these two flyweights to square off given that they to be in their best form. That is particularly true of Lee, who is coming off her best performance to date. “KGB” has had some hype since her pro debut back in 2014 and stands out as a powerfully built striker, but that did not result in much dynamism once she hit the UFC in 2018. One downside to Lee’s muscular frame is that she is not particularly fast with her strikes, so she has not been able to do much in the way of catching her opponents by surprise. Instead, Lee has found most of her success in the clinch or with her wrestling, where she has historically been able to better leverage her strength and take an ugly decision. After a hot start to her UFC career, Lee spent the latter stretches of 2019 and all of 2020 on a three-fight losing streak before turning her situation around in such a manner that things may finally be fully clicking. After a submission win over Antonina Shevchenko in a grappling-heavy performance, Lee looked sharpest against Cynthia Calvillo, putting on a high-paced battering that eventually led the Californian’s corner to stop the fight between rounds. The flyweight division is always in need of fresh challengers, so Lee would be surprisingly well-positioned with a win against Araujo.

A strawweight prior to her late-notice UFC debut in 2019, Brazil’s Araujo had an impressive start to her UFC career. “Vivi” stepped up and scored a knockout win over Talita Bernardo at bantamweight, then settled in at flyweight with a one-sided win over Alexis Davis. However, that momentum was slowed by a clear decision loss to Jessica Eye, raising the worry that while Araujo can look like a dynamic terror when given a clear athletic advantage, she might be cowed under anyone who can match her technique or physicality. Wins over Montana De La Rosa and Roxanne Modafferi did not answer those questions, but Araujo did at least impress a bit in her last fight—a loss to Katlyn Chookagian roughly a year ago. It obviously was not a winning effort, but Araujo at least pressed the action as best she could throughout and found some occasional success with her wrestling. That could serve as a launching pad to a better performance against Lee, particularly via her wrestling, but if “KGB” looks anything like she did in the Calvillo fight, she will force the issue much more than Chookagian did and could cause some of Araujo's old issues to arise. This has the potential to be a barnburner, and the bet is that Lee can stay in this fight enough to eventually put some doubt back in Araujo’s head via pace and pressure.

FEELY’s PREDICTION: The pick is Lee via decision.

Lee vs. Araujo
Johnson vs. Patrick
Jandiroba vs. Hill
Taira vs. Candelario
Maximov vs. Petroski