Preview: UFC on Fox 19 ‘Teixeira vs. Evans’

Wins have always been at a premium in the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s light heavyweight division. Glover Teixeira and Rashad Evans know this truth all too well.

Former title challenger will meet former champion when Teixeira takes on Evans in the UFC on Fox 19 headliner this Saturday at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. The original Lyoto Machida-Dan Henderson co-main event was scrapped at the last minute after Machida admitted to using a banned substance, leaving women’s strawweights Rose Namajunas and Tecia Torres to fill the void with a high-stakes rematch. The four-fight main card also features the return of lightweight contender Khabib Nurmagomedov, along with a clash between top-10 featherweights in Cub Swanson and Hacran Dias.

Let us take a closer look at each UFC on Fox 19 matchup, with analysis and picks:

Light Heavyweights

Glover Teixeira (24-4) vs. Rashad Evans (19-4-1)

THE MATCHUP: A few years ago, Evans might have been a runaway favorite over a fighter like Teixeira.

Teixeira is big and powerful, but he is also something of a plodder. His slow, methodical forward movement would have been a sharp contrast to Evans’ explosiveness and speed, and the Blackzilians rep would have likely run him through with his famous blast double. However, it has been some time since Evans outwrestled an elite opponent. The last time, against Phil Davis, was over four years ago, and Evans has since suffered numerous knee injuries. Prior to his most recent fight, a loss to Ryan Bader, Evans had been out of action for nearly two years.

Teixeira, on the other hand, has been fighting regularly, two times a year. He was outwrestled by Davis, but “Mr. Wonderful” is younger and likely stronger than this current version of Evans. Davis is a grinder, while Evans’ wrestling relies on sudden explosions. Doubtless Evans will get Teixeira down, but the Brazilian is a great scrambler against all but the most stifling grapplers, and he will spend every moment on the feet stalking Evans, looking to land thudding punches.

Speed remains the ace up Evans’ sleeve, though there is reason to believe he has slowed considerably in recent years. Evans is light on his feet and covers distance quickly. His striking, however, is fairly reductive. Fans have long lauded Evans’ boxing, but he tends to rely on his overhand right and spends too much time waiting for the perfect opening. This was a problem against Bader, but Evans had this problem before his injuries, too; recall his fight with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, if you dare.

THE ODDS: Teixeira (-220), Evans (+180)

THE PICK: My analysis makes this sound like a thoroughly one-sided matchup, which it is not. Teixeira’s pressure comes at the cost of his takedown defense, and Evans will almost certainly take down the Brazilian early and often in this fight. Evans would have to keep up that pace for five rounds in order to win, however, as he is unlikely to outstrike Teixeira on the feet and Teixeira is unlikely to stay down for long. In other words, Evans has to fight the perfect fight to win, while Teixeira simply has to keep chugging along. Provided Teixeira keeps up a steady work rate, the fight is his; and if Dan Henderson could hurt Evans, Teixeira can, too. The pick is Teixeira by TKO in round three.

Next Fight » Namajunas vs. Torres