Preview: UFC 192 ‘Cormier vs. Gustafsson’

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Light Heavyweights

Ryan Bader (20-4) vs Rashad Evans (24-3-1)

THE MATCHUP: Wrestlers-turned-awkward-strikers duke it out in a bout that could decide the next title contender at 205 pounds.

I prided myself on correctly picking Bader over Phil Davis in January. I was more than a little disappointed, however, to watch the bout play out the way it did. Though I expected it to be close, I did anticipate Bader walking away with a clear decision, thanks to his excellent defensive wrestling and a boxing game that had been steadily improving for several years. Instead, “Darth” employed an awkward, stiff muay Thai approach, kicking with Davis and throwing lead overhand after lead overhand. What happened to the jab that Bader put to such great use against Glover Teixeira? Where was the counter left hook?

Bader seems to have lost a step as a striker since Power MMA Team lost Jose Benavidez, father and trainer to junior welterweight boxer Jose Benavidez Jr., and the man responsible for the equally noticeable improvements of C.B. Dollaway. Still, Bader remains one of the best wrestlers at light heavyweight, as evidenced by the casual manner in which he stuffed Davis’ takedowns and escaped from the four-time NCAA All-American’s dreaded leg ride.

Since losing to then-champion Jon Jones in 2012, Evans has been inconsistent at best. His lukewarm loss to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was probably the lowest point, but Evans did not come off particularly well in a bout with 43-year-old Dan Henderson, which was far more competitive than it should have been. Like Bader, Evans is a brilliant wrestler with a penchant for boxing. Also like Bader, his boxing has not always been up to snuff. Evans has always had his greatest success combining his wrestling and his boxing, threatening takedowns and coming over the top with right hands or transitioning from combination punching to an explosive double-leg, as he did in the first round against Quinton Jackson. At 36, however, those moments have grown few and far between, and injuries have kept him on the shelf for the better part of two years.

THE ODDS: Evans (-160), Bader (+140)

THE PICK: Fortunately for Bader, he should have a little more time to perfect his changing training environment. Evans has been sidelined with injuries for 22 months now, and he is not getting any younger. Bader has a history of getting buzzed in high-profile matchups, but it will take a serious thunderbolt from Evans to get the job done, and without the threat of his wrestling, that seems a slim chance indeed. The pick is Bader by unanimous decision.

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