Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Poirier vs. Johnson’

Middleweights

Uriah Hall (12-6) vs. Derek Brunson (15-3)

THE MATCHUP: Hall continues to be a frustrating fighter, but the improvements he has made over the past few years cannot be ignored. Hall was once very easily pressured and pushed around the cage. Though his footwork is still not perfect, the new and improved Hall is much more cognizant of his position in the Octagon and more committed to volume. Now Hall’s opponents must walk through a steady output of jabs and leg kicks, interspersed with the spectacular spinning strikes for which he is known.

Brunson is no miracle on the feet, so these tactics may very well be enough to win some if not most of the striking exchanges. Whether or not Hall can outstrike Brunson is not the central question of this matchup, however. What really matters is whether he can outgrapple him. On the ground, Hall has a classic Brazilian jiu-jitsu approach mixed with a little bit of MMA meanness. He stays active off of his back, throwing up submission attempts and forcing his opponent to adjust, and he even lands surprisingly hard shots from his back. Hall is extremely dangerous from top position, but he typically only ends up there after a knockdown.

Brunson was a three-time All-American wrestler for the University of North Carolina at Pembroke, a Division II school where he also won a cheerleading championship. His takedown game is aggressive and effective. He tends to attack the legs first, shooting for a double or single, but he has a wealth of options at his disposal as far as finishing is concerned. Brunson is also very physically strong, allowing him to tie up opponents in awkward positions should his shot fail. Brunson has very good “wrestler’s jiu-jitsu.” He does not care about passing if he does not have to; instead, he will base himself in closed guard and use short, economical shots to make his opponent uncomfortable. When the opponent realizes he is losing and opens his guard to scramble or attack, Brunson will apply heavy pressure and pass to half guard. In scrambles, Brunson is keen to ride rather than securing himself to any one position. Even so, he has an excellent rear-naked choke with which he has finished four foes.

Brunson’s secret weapon is his killer instinct, and it will not be secret for long, as the North Carolina native has finished his last three opponents in the first round, bringing his total number of knockouts to seven. At times Brunson is overaggressive, lunging across open space with his chin exposed or standing around in the pocket as his opponent swings away. It is in these moments that Hall will have his chance to win.

THE ODDS: Brunson (-178), Hall (+153)

THE PICK: Hall is so fast, so dexterous and so unpredictable that his so-called puncher’s chance is far greater than most. The chance that Hall could catch Brunson overextending or walk him into a back kick a la Gegard Mousasi cannot be ignored. Still, Brunson deserves to be the favorite here. Other than losses to Kendall Grove and Ronaldo Souza, both of which occurred when Brunson had only been fighting professionally for two years, he has only lost to Yoel Romero; and he competed well against the Olympic silver medalist. He has beaten all six of his other UFC opponents, four of them in the first round, and he has the physicality and the skills to go far in MMA. The pick is Brunson by unanimous decision.

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