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Women's Strawweights

Amanda Lemos (9-1-1) vs. Montserrat Ruiz (10-1)
Odds: Lemos (-525), Conejo (+415)

Strawweight is the deepest women's division in the UFC, and Brazil's Lemos might be the top darkhorse contender at 115 pounds. Prior to December of 2019, it would've been easy to forget that Lemos was even on the UFC roster -- her pre-UFC career wasn't anything to write home about and her promotional debut at bantamweight saw her get overwhelmed by Leslie Smith before getting served a two-year USADA suspension. Once her suspension was up, Lemos dropped two weight classes for her next bout against Miranda Granger, a move that paid off in spades; even though Granger is a talented grappler, she was little match for the horsepower that Lemos brought and got choked out in under four minutes. That's basically been the story of Lemos' UFC career since; Mizuki Inoue had some moments of success, but Lemos was able to rely on her power and physicality to handle both her and Livinha Souza in relatively one-sided fashion. If nothing else, Mexico's Ruiz figures to bring more power to the Octagon than any of Lemos's strawweight opponents to date.

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At five feet tall, Ruiz is a ball of muscle who takes a quite unorthodox approach to her fights; her pressure striking is just an avenue towards “Conejo” clinching up with her opponents and attempting head and arm throws, often followed by attempts at a scarf hold. It's the sort of one-note approach that only figures to work in divisions like heavyweight, but Ruiz has somehow made it work thus far, including a clear decision win over Cheyanne Buys in her UFC debut this past March. Lemos' often slow and patient approach can be exploited, but Ruiz figures to charge repeatedly into danger here. For someone who banks so much on advantages in leverage and strength, it's not a good sign that she figures to be physically outgunned. Add in that Lemos can grapple, and she figures to find herself in an advantageous position where she can lay on a beating until the referee steps in. The pick is Lemos via second-round stoppage.

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