Preview: UFC on ESPN 31 ‘Font vs. Aldo’

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Lightweights

#14 LW | Rafael Fiziev (10-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. #12 LW | Brad Riddell (10-1, 4-0 UFC)

ODDS: Fiziev (-115), Riddell (-105)

This seems like a guaranteed banger, as these two lightweights look to establish themselves as the premier violence bringer du jour in the UFC’s 155-pound division. Riddell’s rise has not been nearly as sudden as that of City Kickboxing teammate Israel Adesanya, but he has followed a similar path, transitioning from kickboxing and adapting with shocking ease to mixed martial arts at the UFC level. As usual with former kickboxers, the main question for Riddell has been his takedown defense, and early returns have been good. There have been rough patches against some opponents, but Riddell has usually been able to work back from controlling positions rather than find himself in any sort of danger, at which point he gets back to work with violent aplomb. Riddell is certainly someone who builds throughout a fight, taking a while to get his reads for some later counters; in fact, it is not uncommon to see Riddell get tagged early and find himself in some troublesome moments. However, by the end of the bout, “Quake” has reliably found himself taking over against his opponents and bombing them with some sickeningly hard strikes. It has been both impressive and exciting, and at 30 years old, Riddell is primed to spend a few years as a prominent lightweight contender.

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He will take on Fiziev, whose UFC career started off in disappointing fashion. After some hype leading into his promotional debut, Fiziev lasted all of 86 seconds before suffering a flash knockout against the wild brutality of Magomed Mustafaev. However, Fiziev has righted the ship quite well since. A rebound win over Alex White was an obvious showcase, and “Ataman” followed it with a breakout win that saw him handle Marc Diakiese in every phase of the fight. The last year has seen Fiziev build on that momentum. A first-round knockout win over Renato Carneiro was an impressive result, and he pulled off the rare feat of looking impressive against Bobby Green—until the former King of the Cage champion staged a third-round comeback that fell just short of stealing the victory. The Green fight did raise some concern for Fiziev going forward, particularly as he marches towards main events and championship fights. Because Green forced him to work at a blistering pace, Fiziev was tired to a degree that had not been seen before by the third round. That is a worry against a fighter like Riddell, who may not set that pace but is about as dangerous as any opponent Fiziev has faced to date by the time the third frame rolls around. This is a razor-thin fight, particularly since both men are former training partners, and comes down to whether Fiziev’s speed advantage and hot starts outweigh the fact that Riddell is going to be the much more effective fighter by the end of the bout. Given the power that Riddell brings to the table, it means he also has the better chance of finishing this fight. At the end of the day, Fiziev winning the first round is probably the surest thing in a match that could go any number of ways from there, but this one is more about the violent skill on display than anything else. The pick is Fiziev via decision.

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