Preview: UFC on ESPN 43 ‘Vera vs. Sandhagen’

Women’s Bantamweights

#15 P4P | Holly Holm (14-6, 7-6 UFC) vs. #6 WBW | Yana Santos (14-6, 4-3 UFC)

ODDS: Holm (-240), Santos (+200)

Even at 41 years old, it is hard to count Holm entirely out of the title picture given her athleticism and star power, so it will be interesting to see what she can manage to accomplish, particularly coming off of a disappointing loss. Holm is a fascinating figure, especially in the wake of her breakout 2015 campaign, which she capped off with a knockout of Ronda Rousey that remains one of the most notable upsets in the sport’s history. “The Preacher’s Daughter” then dropped her bantamweight title to Miesha Tate in her first defense, but conventional wisdom was that Holm would find herself back in the title picture sooner rather than later. That has been true, but her residual star power from the Rousey win has masked that her in-cage success has not been all that consistent. The Tate loss started a string where Holm only won two of seven fights. Holm has traditionally relied on either her boxing prowess or her overpowering clinch work to neutralize her opponents. However, some of the other elite women in the heavier weight classes were able to take apart that game, typically via staying patient and countering her on her own terms with more power, even if those two wins over Bethe Correia and Megan Anderson did serve as reminders of how Holm could still leverage her physicality into a one-sided win. Following a knockout loss to Amanda Nunes in a 2019 title fight, Holm has leaned more towards that clinch work and wrestling over her high-volume and low-power striking, making her bouts a bit more of a slog. Even so, Holm is still enough of an athlete that it worked without much difficulty, including theoretically doing so against Ketlen Vieira in a main event in May. The judges favored Vieira’s striking power and activity over Holm’s long stretches of control, giving the Brazilian a decision win that seemed to surprise everyone involved, as well as potentially indicating to Holm that she may have to adjust her approach going forward. At any rate, even with all the questions and issues surrounding Holm’s game at the moment, she seems set up well here against Santos. The former Yana Kunitskaya, who returns from a nearly two-year pregnancy leave here, is a former training partner of Holm’s and fights with much the same style. “Foxy” has become a bit more adept as a striker in her last few bouts, but she mostly get things done with a grimy clinch game of her own—though, amusingly, she has a 2021 win over Vieira in a fight where the Brazilian was the low-output grinder who lost the fight on the scorecards. This sets up to be a grind where Holm should be the stronger fighter and better athlete, as well as the more fluid fighter for as long as this takes place on the feet. There is some concern between Holm’s age and increasingly low output that this might be closer than expected, but there is also no reason to pick Holm to lose to someone who has historically been an inferior version of generally the same fighter. The pick is Holm via decision.

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Vera vs. Sandhagen
Holm vs. Santos
Landwehr vs. Lingo
Barber vs. Lee
Kape vs. Perez
Njokuani vs. Duraev
The Prelims