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Lightweights

Edson Barboza (17-4) vs. Gilbert Melendez (22-5)

THE MATCHUP: As Barboza fulfills his potential, Melendez continues his steady decline. The two veteran lightweights are set to meet at the crossroads.

Melendez may be declining, but it has hardly been a precipitous fall. He lost a close fight with Eddie Alvarez in June 2015; in December 2014, he pressed the action and stole a round from Anthony Pettis before succumbing in the second; in October 2013, he put on a fantastic display in a thrilling fight with Diego Sanchez; and in April 2013, he lost a widely disputed decision to Benson Henderson. Melendez may be just 1-3 in the UFC, but two of the men who beat him were champions at the time, and the last became a champion shortly after.

Melendez is well-known for his aggressive style, but relentless offense really has not been the cornerstone of his game for some time. Since winning the Strikeforce title in 2009, Melendez has continually outmaneuvered and outworked his opponents by using clever tactics. Melendez’s stiff jab is the basis of his approach, and the hard right hand and awkward left hook with which he pairs it make him a difficult man to counter. Melendez’s old wildness will rear its head when necessary, but he generally relies on his opponents to bring the fight. When they hang back, like Jorge Masvidal in 2011 or Alvarez in 2015, Melendez is happy to pick away at range.

Physically, however, Melendez is not the same. “El Nino” is a boy no longer, and that leaves him in a difficult spot with Barboza. Though just four years younger than Melendez, Barboza is a mere seven years into his MMA career. Melendez has been fighting as a pro for nearly twice as long. Experience is a help, but Barboza finds himself on the more forgiving side of the slope, just entering his prime with a pair of recent phenomenal performances against Tony Ferguson and Anthony Pettis in his rearview mirror.

Barboza prefers the same range as Melendez, but his toolkit is far better suited to those waters. He is one of the fastest lightweights on the roster, with a deadly arsenal of kicks. Five of Barboza’s 17 wins are kick-related stoppages, and three of those from leg kicks alone. Despite these credentials, boxing has been Barboza’s greatest asset over the last two years. While he struggled with the combination punching of men like Ross Pearson and Jamie Varner in his early UFC bouts, it was boxing that led Barboza to victory over Pettis. He not only outpunched the former champion but easily outmaneuvered him, running circles around the vaunted striker and picking him apart with the jab and left hook. It was only after finding great success with his hands and footwork that Barboza unleashed the kicks.

Melendez does have a wrestling background, but it has been some time since he truly outwrestled an elite opponent. Not only is Barboza a stout defensive wrestler, but his movement and distance management will make it quite difficult for Melendez to get close enough to even think about a takedown. This one will play out on the feet.

THE ODDS: Barboza (-215), Melendez (+180)

THE PICK: Melendez still has some dog in him. Like the Stockton, California, crew with which he came up, he is more than capable of biting down and slinging leather when things are not going his way. Not long ago, that might have been a distinct advantage for him in this fight, as Barboza was prone to panic in wild exchanges and too fond of admiring his work. With steady improvements in both technique and poise, however, Barboza can deny Melendez the brawl and survive should one break out anyway. Coupled with Melendez’s physical decline -- and remember, Melendez tested positive for performance-enhancers in his last fight -- Barboza is well-situated to cement his status as a member of the lightweight elite. Barboza wins via unanimous decision.

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