UFC 174 ‘Johnson vs. Bagautinov’ Preview

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Welterweights

Tyron Woodley (13-2, 3-1 UFC) vs. Rory MacDonald (16-2, 7-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Woodley takes on Rory MacDonald in the co-main event, with the winner emerging as the man most likely to challenge Johny Hendricks for his welterweight championship.

Woodley’s most recent fight against Carlos Condit ended when the “Natural Born Killer” injured his knee and was unable to continue. However, the bout was headed down a fairly clear path: Woodley was going to dictate where the fight took place, all while landing some power shots for good measure. Woodley needs to recreate that performance against MacDonald. A two-time NCAA All-American wrestler at the University of Missouri, he will need to use his wrestling against the slightly taller MacDonald. Woodley has good power in his hands, but he is not going to be able to put his gloves on the Canadian if he fails to mix in his wrestling.

MacDonald uses his jab well with a low stance, as we saw against Jake Ellenberger at UFC on Fox 8; if Woodley stays on the outside, we could see a repeat of the MacDonald-Ellenberger fight. He needs to pressure MacDonald during the first two rounds. Remember, we saw MacDonald fade late in losses to Condit and Robbie Lawler.

MacDonald has the talent, but does he have the cardio? This fight will answer that question. If MacDonald wants to emulate training partner Georges St. Pierre, he needs to work on his conditioning. Cardio has an impact on confidence, too. Since he lost to Condit at UFC 115, MacDonald has adopted a far more conservative fighting style, perhaps for fear of gassing in the later rounds. If his cardio is there, he can mash down on the throttle and allow his technique to work its magic. MacDonald will want to adopt a similar approach to the one he took against Ellenberger. Stay low to avoid the shot; jab to keep Woodley on the outside and set up his cross and kicks; and stay away from a grappling-heavy affair.

The Pick: This fight is most likely going to be a game of inches and a coin toss in terms of who wins. Look for MacDonald to walk away with a split decision, leading to a tangent from UFC President Dana White about granting title shots to those who play it safe.

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