Preview: UFC 196 ‘McGregor vs. Diaz’

Light heavyweights

Gian Villante (14-6) vs Ilir Latifi (10-5)

THE MATCHUP: Just when it might have seemed prescient to give up on Villante as a prospect, he started showing signs of real development. Villante stayed composed for three rounds against Corey Anderson, even after the younger, faster fighter began to stage a comeback. He fought perfectly against Anthony Perosh, maintaining a steady, controlled pressure despite hurting the Australian grappler badly early in the first round. Of course, sandwiched by those two performances was the stunning knockout loss to Tom Lawlor, but Villante was hardly his old, reckless self in that fight, either.

Unfortunately for Villante, no amount of composure will make him faster or more durable, and his striking defense has yet to catch up to his offense. Resisting the brawl is a step in the right direction, but Villante still struggles with opponents who can take his power and keep coming. It bears remembering that Villante only began fighting in 2009, and advanced defense can take a while to develop. For the moment, his barebones brand of defense -- mostly just retreating and covering up -- will make it difficult for him to contend with quicker, more durable or luckier opponents in the pocket.

Whether or not Latifi is that man remains to be seen, but the Swede does have some of the explosive speed and counterpunching ability that has proven to be Villante’s weakness in the past. Countering really has been the key to Latifi’s success in the UFC so far. Whether with takedowns or crushing overhand rights, Latifi almost always does his best work on the counter. In fact, he downright relies on his opponent’s commitment to win. A forward step, a shot or an overextended punch -- Latifi relishes the opportunity to give an aggressive opponent something to run into. Latifi’s standup and the wrestling which flows from it is so reliant on the counter that he has struggled repeatedly with out-fighters. From Emanuel Newton to Gegard Mousasi to Jan Blachowicz, when a fighter keeps Latifi on the end of his jabs and kicks and refuses to lunge into the pocket, the Swede quickly runs out of ideas.

That is why this is such a confounding fight. Villante is not an out-fighter. He is more like a boxer-puncher, if anything, with strong brawling tendencies. That means he and Latifi could have two very different fights in one.

THE ODDS: Latifi (-195), Villante (+165)

THE PICK: This is a fight that either man could win, and I fully expect both fighters to get their way at different points in the bout. As long as Villante kicks away at Latifi from range, he should be able to score points and do damage. If he is lucky, this could lead to an early knockout. However, as soon as he gets overanxious, attempts to mix up things with Latifi in an exchange of punches or overcommits to a forward attack, the Swede’s speed, power and durability will win the day. Latifi finds a counter and wins via second-round knockout.

Next Fight » Anderson vs. Lawlor