Preview: UFC 205 ‘Alvarez vs. McGregor’

UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0)

THE MATCHUP: Kowalkiewicz really has two distances at which she is most effective. With her constant movement, hard kicks and strafing straight punches, she is a challenge from long range; and thanks to her physical strength, solid takedown defense and varied selection of knees and elbows, she is dangerous in the clinch. It is in the pocket where she tends to run into trouble. Kowalkiewicz is not a particularly athletic fighter according to usual MMA standards. She does not seem particularly coordinated and tends to rise when she strikes, which not only takes the sting out of her punches but makes her chin an inviting target in punching range.

Like the recently victorious Tony Ferguson, however, Kowalkiewicz has the physical attributes to make up for these obvious holes. She is extremely tough, and her stamina is outstanding, especially when coupled with an outrageous work rate. In her fight with Rose Namajunas, Kowalkiewicz’s best win to date, those qualities enabled her to survive the middle distance long enough to press her real advantage in the clinch; and fortunately for Kowalkiewicz, Namajunas was just frazzled enough to engage with her in that range from there on out.

So let’s talk about Jedrzejczyk. The champion is quite effective from long range. She is an excellent combination puncher and, judging by training footage from her new home at American Top Team, seems to be working on her head movement and weight transfer to make her even more effective in middle range. In addition, she is a ferocious clinch fighter, having used that skill set to stifle two of the very best wrestlers in the division. A few other things to note about the champion: She is very tough and has a true champion’s mindset to help her account for any unforeseen roadblocks. She also has excellent conditioning and is one of the few fighters in the division with a higher work rate than Kowalkiewicz; and unlike Namajunas, Jedrzejczyk does not get frazzled. Whether she is dropping two rounds to Claudia Gadelha or suffering a broken right hand in a five-round war with Valerie Letourneau, difficult circumstances only seem to increase the champion’s will to win.

Jedrzejczyk has only gotten better as her level of competition has improved. Gadelha entered their rematch in July having stepped up her game considerably, and it was not enough. She had the power and the strength, the wrestling and the jiu-jitsu, but she could not take more than two rounds off the champion and exhausted herself so thoroughly in the attempt that the final three rounds of the contest ended up being three of the most lopsided in UFC championship history. Jedrzejczyk has the accuracy to catch Kowalkiewicz on the way in, the takedown defense to keep her from going to Plan B and the drive to stave her off time and time again.

THE ODDS: Jedrzejczyk (-380), Kowalkiewicz (+308)

THE PICK: This is going to be a great fight. In the end, Jedrzejczyk is something like Kowalkiewicz, only better. She hits harder and throws more. She is longer, taller and likely heavier. She has more experience against a better level of competition, both in the UFC cage and in the muay Thai ring. Kowalkiewicz will not go down easily, and there is no doubt that her relentless style and round-winning nature will force the champion to work. However, there is no range, phase or skill set in which Kowalkiewicz holds a clear advantage over Jedrzejczyk. The challenger may have envisioned herself as the UFC champion, but after UFC 205, she will have to satisfy herself with seeing a countrywoman on the throne. The pick is Jedrzejczyk by fourth-round TKO.

Next Fight » Weidman vs. Romero