Preview: UFC 268 ‘Usman vs. Covington 2’

Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream UFC 268 live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.

Lightweights

#2 LW | Justin Gaethje (22-3, 5-3 UFC) vs. #4 LW | Michael Chandler (22-6, 1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Gaethje (-220), Chandler (+180)

Chandler’s shot at UFC gold did not go quite as planned, but the former Bellator standout is still well-positioned for the future. It has been nearly a decade since Chandler had his breakout performance, a Bellator MMA title win over Eddie Alvarez that was one of the best fights of its time. Despite the occasional loss, Chandler spent the ensuing nine years establishing himself as one of the top lightweights in the world. However, there were still questions about how exactly he would fare once he finally made his way to the UFC. Chandler’s power-heavy style was essentially perfect to run through the greater swath of his Bellator opponents, and that was all asked and answered in the two and a half minutes that his UFC debut lasted. Dan Hooker figured to be a tough stylistic matchup, but Chandler was quickly able to knock him out. That set up Chandler to compete for the vacant lightweight strap against Charles Oliveira in May, which wound up as a barnburner of a fight that saw multiple phase shifts and momentum swings before the Brazilian scored a knockout near the start of the second round. With the top of the lightweight division still shaking itself out after the retirement of Khabib Nurmagomedov, there is no shortage of interesting options for Chandler to get himself back in the title picture. The UFC decided to go with one of the best and one of the most exciting of the bunch in Gaethje.

Gaethje is another former champion—out of World Series of Fighting—who came to the UFC with questions about his championship upside. As with Chandler, there were no questions about whether or not “The Highlight” would bring violence to the Octagon. Gaethje’s UFC debut against Michael Johnson in 2017 put everything on display, as his straight-ahead style led to some wild momentum changes and near-knockouts on both sides until he scored a second-round finish. For as scintillating as a debut as that was, losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier—which admittedly required excellent performances from both men—led to the worry that Gaethje’s all-offense style would not get him anywhere near title contention. To his credit, he retooled, and while his most dominant wins still look much like the same old pressure-heavy Gaethje, he has often taken a more measured approach, mixing up his defense and picking his spots before pouring on a brutal amount of offense. Everything clicked at just the right time for Gaethje to dominate Tony Ferguson in the UFC’s return from the pandemic in May 2020. That turn led to Gaethje becoming, as it turned out, Nurmagomedov’s final title challenger. Many picked Gaethje as the man to finally end Nurmagomedov’s undefeated run, but he instead proved once again that he was one of the best talents this sport has ever seen, even with his opponent having a lot of the right ideas. Like Chandler, Gaethje is well-positioned with a win here, as he has shown himself to be one of the best fighters in the world while bringing plenty of equity to the cage as one of the most exciting fighters alive.

Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream UFC 268 live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.

The whole breakdown of this fight could be summed up in one word—violence—but this should be a wonderful scrap even if there is a clear favorite. For as much success as he has enjoyed, Chandler’s game remains relatively basic from an overall perspective, pressuring with the threat of his power and his wrestling. As relatively patient as Gaethje has been in his recent fights, at least compared to his previous standard, he should quickly be able to spark a brawl that could end the fight in sudden fashion. Of course, it is essentially a coinflip as to who will get the best of that exchange, as both men have one-shot knockout power and are not entirely unbreakable. Past their respective opening salvos, which is Chandler’s best chance to win, this should clearly be Gaethje’s fight down the stretch. He has the much better gas tank and is the more durable fighter, in general, even beyond his chin. Chandler is such a tightly wound fighter that there is seemingly always a chance of some kind of injury, heightened all the more by Gaethje’s brutal leg kicks. The pick is Gaethje via second-round knockout.

Continue Reading » Burgos vs. Quarantillo