Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘McDonald vs. Lineker’

Middleweights

Tim Boetsch (18-10) vs. Josh Samman (12-3)

Full disclosure: I not only consider Samman a friend but scout opponents for him, as well. I would like to think that gives me a fairly good read on this fight, but it might also color my analysis of the matchup, so apply salt as desired.

THE MATCHUP: Boetsch may be on a three-fight skid, but he remains a dangerous and experienced opponent with a penchant for sudden comeback wins, as in his second-round obliteration of former middleweight dark horse Brad Tavares in 2014. Still, Boetsch is not getting any younger -- he is 35 -- and with 28 fights on his record, many of which were gut-check brawls, his legendary durability is starting to fade, too: Three of Boetsch’s four knockout losses occurred in the last three and a half years.

Samman is certainly a striker dangerous enough to put away Boetsch, as evidenced by his spectacular head kick knockout of Eddie Gordon. Samman’s troubles tend to come in grappling battles with more experienced -- or more decorated -- opponents. He was forced to escape from several submissions in the early going against Kevin Casey, and his grappling match with Tamdan McCrory ended in a submission win for “The Barn Cat.” Perhaps Samman’s greatest weakness is his willingness to engage in these kinds of fights. With a finisher’s mindset, Samman has been known to leap on tactical opportunities even when strategy demands otherwise.

Fortunately for Samman, Boetsch is not much of a strategist in his own right. When “The Barbarian” was being cornered by AMC Pankration’s Matt Hume, he often pressured and pushed the pace, imposing his considerable physicality on his opponents. Now that Boetsch is working mostly with Marcus Davis, however, he tends to obey his natural tendency to counter. Boetsch is certainly not lost in this kind of fight -- his timing and power make him a formidable obstacle for any advancing opponent -- but his arsenal is limited mostly to overhand rights, wild hooks and short shots in the clinch. The well of experience is deep, but the bag of tricks remains fairly shallow.

Boetsch’s wrestling makes this a close fight. Though Boetsch typically wins by knockout or decision -- it has been six years since his last submission, which occurred outside the UFC -- wrestling is still an essential part of his game. Boetsch works well in the clinch, as does Samman. Boetsch’s approach is to grab on with one hand and go to work with the other, or else throw short knees. Samman’s style is more traditionally Thai, with double-collar ties and inside control that lead to punishing knee strikes. Should Boetsch pursue the takedown in these tie-ups or as counters to Samman’s punches and kicks, the fight could get interesting. Boetsch has never had very good control on the ground, however, so Samman’s tenacity will allow him to scramble free or seek submissions.

THE ODDS: Samman (-215), Boetsch (+180)

THE PICK: This is a tough fight to pick. Boetsch is one of those fighters who continually surprises, even when all seems lost. His comeback win over Tavares has already been mentioned, but no one will forget the ferocious comeback he staged against Yushin Okami, being utterly dominated in two rounds only to come out in the third and put away the Japanese vet. Samman, however, has too many advantages. At this point, he is more durable than Boetsch, having never been knocked out or even stunned in the UFC. He is far more mobile and capable of launching unpredictable strikes from odd angles. Though Boetsch is strong, Samman is extremely athletic and should be able to match him in the clinch should he choose to do so. The pick is Samman by second-round knockout.

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