Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Penn’

Welterweights

Court McGee (18-5) vs. Ben Saunders (20-7-2)

THE MATCHUP: This one features two battle-hardened veterans with no clear path to the title but plenty of fun and weird fights left in them. The action should be good, and it is great to see “Killa B” Saunders back in the UFC once more.

As far as Saunders is concerned, this matchup is something of a double-edged sword. On the one hand, Saunders’ biggest hurdle is durability. As a tall fighter, Saunders’ chin is a lofty but inviting target for shorter opponents; and he does not do well to protect that jawline, frequently letting his opponents land about 70 percent of their strikes to the head. In that regard, McGee is a favorable matchup, as he is not a powerful puncher and has not scored a knockout since 2009. Saunders’ upright style also leaves him susceptible to takedowns, and while he has an exciting and dangerous guard game -- he remains the only fighter to have ever finished an omoplata in the Octagon -- McGee has never been submitted in 10 years of professional competition.

Just as Saunders’ fights are often defined by his vulnerability, McGee’s limitations play a major role in his bouts. For one, McGee has always struggled to keep up with faster, more athletic fighters. He is rugged, durable and always game, but he is very hand and foot slow for a welterweight and lacks the sort of natural power to overcome that disadvantage. McGee attempts to overcome his shortcomings with volume, pace and perseverance.

That brings us back to Saunders’ weaknesses. In McGee’s last fight, he was repeatedly forced to wrestle the substantially more powerful Dominique Steele, spending minutes at a time clinging to a single-leg against the fence. McGee completes only 27 percent of his takedowns, but he shoots an average of eight times per 15 minutes; and as we have already mentioned, Saunders has been taken down in every one of his last seven fights.

THE ODDS: McGee (-110), Saunders (-110)

THE PICK: It is possible that McGee could hold down Saunders or pin him to the wall and grind out a decision win. There is even a slim chance that McGee knocks out Saunders, if the staggering right hand he landed on Steele in the opening seconds of his last bout is any indication. Overall, however, Saunders is by far the more dangerous fighter, both from his back and on his feet. McGee is tough to finish, but the power differential makes Saunders more likely to create the kind of memorable moments for which judges look. It was for that reason that McGee probably deserved to lose to Steele, and Saunders owns more knockouts. The pick is Saunders by unanimous decision.

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