Heavyweights
Ben Rothwell (36-12) vs. Stefan Struve (29-11)Advertisement
Struve seemed to be getting out at the right time, but naturally, MMA retirements do not last. Struve’s 6-foot-11 frame always made him a tantalizing prospect, but even going back to his 2009 UFC debut against Junior dos Santos, the “Skyscraper” has never quite managed to keep opponents at bay. Circa 2012, it looked like Struve might finally be putting things together a bit, as he managed to string together four straight wins, including a main event knockout of Stipe Miocic. However, things quickly went downhill. Mark Hunt split Struve’s jaw in two with one punch, and it looked like the Dutchman would have to retire after doctors subsequently discovered a heart condition. Struve did eventually come back, but he has been a much flatter fighter ever since. Struve has his moments -- his height does make him an odd challenge for opponents, particularly on the mat -- but things were getting depressing by the time 2018 rolled around, as Struve did not mount much offense in grinding losses to Andrei Arlovski and Marcin Tybura. Even in Struve’s last bout, he got outwrestled by Marcos Rogerio de Lima for a round and a half until sinking an arm-triangle choke, marking one of the few UFC fights where the victor never landed a significant strike. That is about as good as it has gotten for Struve lately, which made it an ideal time to retire. Instead, he is back again. If there is any good news, it is that Rothwell has not looked too great in recent years himself.
Like Struve, Rothwell has been in the UFC for nearly a decade, though the Wisconsin native had a well-traveled career even before landing in the Octagon. Through 2012, “Big Ben” would only turn up once a calendar year and mostly treaded water. His mix of size, awkward striking and surprisingly skilled submissions were enough to get him to a point, but anyone near the title picture at the time was more than able to turn him back. After a 2013 loss to Gabriel Gonzaga, Rothwell was not much more active, but he seemed to finally be putting things together in his mid-30s, rattling off four straight wins, including a knockout of Alistair Overeem, and becoming the first man to submit Josh Barnett. That Barnett win looked to have Rothwell close to a title shot, but things have gone firmly off the rails since. Dos Santos easily kept Rothwell at range to earn a five-round decision victory, and Rothwell subsequently missed the next three years due to injury and a failed drug test. Upon his return in March, Rothwell has looked much the same in broad strokes, using his size and awkward movement to slowly pressure his foes, but it has not been nearly as effective. Arlovski and Blagoy Ivanov were each able to win exchanges at will, winning on both pace and power. For as crucial as this fight is for whatever Struve is hoping to accomplish in this comeback, Rothwell needs a win here just as badly.
It is difficult to have confidence in either fighter. Rothwell seems to be the obvious pick, though it is almost by default, since it is unclear how Struve wins fights nowadays. Since the Miocic fight, he has only damaged the most shopworn of heavyweights, and his low-percentage submission game probably will not work against Rothwell’s grappling chops. The odd thing is that even with the impressive Barnett submission on his record, Rothwell is more than content to keep fights standing. He has not completed a successful takedown since fighting Hunt in 2011, in part because he has only attempted one in the eight years since. So rather than a grind, this fight will probably look like a mess, with Rothwell plodding forward, Struve landing punches that cannot scare him off and “Big Ben” returning fire with shots that are harder but not clean enough to put an end to the proceedings. The pick is Rothwell via decision.
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