Fight OddsMiddleweights
Ikram Aliskerov (14-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Warlley Alves (14-6, 8-6 UFC)ODDS: Aliskerov (-535), Alves (+410)
The UFC’s middleweight division is starting to turn over with some fresh talent, and it will be interesting to see if Aliskerov can be part of that charge. Aliskerov certainly had the resume to suggest he could hang in the UFC—his lone professional loss came to Khamzat Chimaev in 2019—but there was some concern as to how much he could stand out. At his best, Aliskerov was a fairly low-output wrestler with the type power submission game that has rarely succeeded against elite competition. However, his UFC debut against Phil Hawes in May was a promising sign, particularly against a fellow wrestler. Aliskerov still is not the most electric striker but he made his punches count, quickly knocking out Hawes with an impressively accurate combination. That was enough for the UFC to decide it was firmly in the Aliskerov business, even though things have not worked out in terms of matchmaking. High-profile bouts against Paulo Costa and Nassourdine Imavov fizzled out, so Aliskerov’s return instead comes against Alves, typically a welterweight. Alves enjoyed an electric run through Season 3 of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” back in 2014 but quickly established himself as a fighter who was dangerous in moments but frustratingly inconsistent. It looked for a bit that none of that might matter—an 86-second win over Colby Covington in 2015 made Alves look like a future champion—but the last few years have mostly been an exercise in frustration for him. He has either burned out his gas tank with explosive offense or paced himself to the point of becoming an ineffective three-round fighter. A move up to middleweight might help some of those cardio issues in a general sense, but Alves looks to be in a particularly poor spot against an opponent who has a much clearer focus and the skill to get to his strengths without much difficulty. The pick is Aliskerov via first-round submission.
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