Preview: UFC on ABC 9 ‘Whittaker vs. de Ridder’

Light Heavyweights

Nikita Krylov (30-10, 11-8 UFC) vs. Bogdan Guskov (17-3, 3-1)

Odds: Krylov (-190); Guskov (+160)

In what is a bit of a theme on this main card, Krylov has been a UFC fixture for so long that it is hard to believe he is only 33 years old. Since debuting as a raw, undersized 21-year-old heavyweight in 2012—with the hilarious “Fighting Al Capone” nickname, no less—the man who now goes by “The Miner” has settled in, across two separate stints with the UFC, as a sometimes impressive, sometimes frustrating fringe contender at 205 pounds.

Krylov is a big, athletic light heavyweight with crushing power, solid wrestling and an outstanding, diverse grappling attack. His high kicks and his ground transitions are both smooth and frighteningly quick. In short, he is one of the most dangerous, complete offensive threats in the division. The problem is…everything else. Like most light heavyweights, even at the top, Krylov has some defensive liabilities, but most of his setbacks can be traced to poor fight IQ. Never forget that Ovince St. Preux’s rise to master of the shoulder choke began at the expense of Krylov, who despite being a good grappler committed a Day 1 mistake by holding onto a guillotine choke as “OSP” moved to side control.

Krylov has come a long way since then and is clearly trying to be a more composed fighter, but he still marched headfirst into his opponent’s best weapons as recently as his losses to Dominick Reyes and Paul Craig, while foes like Magomed Ankalaev and Glover Teixeira won rounds with ease simply by controlling the pace and range against him.

In short, Krylov is still vulnerable to any opponent who knows what he wants to do and has the discipline to pursue it—or, occasionally wait for Krylov to blunder into it. That makes Saturday’s matchup intriguing, because Guskov is less talented and skilled than Krylov almost everywhere but has one obvious route to victory.

The burly Uzbekistani stepped up on short notice to face Volkan Oezdemir almost two years ago and was stopped in the second round, but since then he has settled in with three straight wins by finish. Compact but brawny, Guskov is a brawler by preference, throwing big hooks with both hands. That was enough to blow up Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann, but against Billy Elekana in January, Guskov had to navigate some danger before finding the finish in Round 2. Notably, Elekana scored an easy takedown despite being an undersized last-minute replacement foe, and proceeded to take Guskov’s back.

That points to one clear advantage for Krylov, as he is bigger, stronger, just as quick and probably a better technical wrestler than Elekana. If Krylov takes Guskov down, this might be over quickly. Krylov should have opportunities standing up as well. His hand speed, reach and diversity of strikes should all give the shorter man problems. For as long as they are on the feet, however, Guskov is always one haymaker away from turning the fight on its head. His power is a real problem even by the standards of this hard-hitting division, and Krylov is prone to defensive lapses, even by the standards of this defensively porous division.

On my preview podcast I made the case for Guskov to catch Krylov’s chin early, much as Reyes did, while my co-host Dayne Fox argued for the new, more conservative “Miner” to minimize risk by wrestling early and taking advantage of Guskov there. This fight still feels much more like a pick ‘em than its nearly 2-to-1 line would imply, and it’s always a nervous feeling picking Krylov fights because when you’re wrong, you’re really wrong, but I lean slightly towards Dayne being right. Krylov by Round 2 submission.



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Whittaker vs. de Ridder
Yan vs. McGhee
Magomedov vs. Barriault
Almabayev vs. Ochoa
Krylov vs. Guskov
The Prelims