Opinion: Featherweight Fire is Coming

Is it just me, or does it seem like the upcoming contest for the featherweight crown between Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway isn’t getting the attention you would expect it to? With the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s annual Madison Square Garden card looming just beyond it and the controversy with the heavyweight triangle that is Jon Jones, Stipe Miocic and Tom Aspinall, Topuria and Holloway appear to be getting lost in the shuffle.

Maybe it would help if there was some trash talk going between the two, but Topuria hasn’t exhibited the same vitriol towards Holloway that he has some of his past opponents. As for Holloway, trash talk has never been a part of his personality. You’d think with Holloway being the darling of UFC 300 earlier this year, there would be a more natural interest from fans as well, but the sheer volume of fights the UFC produces – let alone the sport itself – tends to leave fans with short memories, provided there isn’t something to provide them frequent reminders. To be fair to Topuria and Holloway, they have been turning up the heat in the last little bit, going back and forth in an interview with Brendan Fitzgerald. However, even that has been overshadowed by Topuria’s war of words with Belal Muhammad.

Regardless, even if the hype for the contest isn’t where it should be, I have a hard time believing we won’t all be arguing about what comes next for the top of the division following the conclusion of their contest. No matter who wins, there’s going to be a controversy over who has next. There is no shortage of options for where the UFC goes next... and we may not get an answer of where to go until the end of the year.

Let's play out the potential choices, starting with what appears to be the most obvious direction to go. If Holloway wins, most would expect former champion Alexander Volkanovski will have the next shot at the title. After all, Volkanovski has a very strong case for being the most dominant featherweight the sport has seen, not to mention having three wins over Holloway already. Plus, it’s not like it’s been a long time since Volkanovski lost the title, having dropped it to Topuria just in February. Typically, you’d expect a champion as dominant as Volkanovski would have gotten an immediate rematch.

However, it’s possible Volkanovski’s dominance over Holloway could work against him. We’ve already seen Volkanovski and Holloway dance three times. Three times we’ve seen Volkanovski secure a decision victory in fights that never seemed to exceed the level of a simmer. Is anyone really excited to see that bout a fourth time?

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Saturday at 2 PM ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

It doesn’t help that Volkanovski fell twice to Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title. While their first contest was a contest to long be remembered, the second was a one-sided blowout that shattered the myth of Volkanovski as an indestructible force. Thus, Volkanovski is presently waiting for a title shot while having lost three of his last four contests. Even if those losses to Makhachev and Topuria are to some of the best in the sport, that’s a lot of recent losses for someone to be sitting around waiting for a title shot. For that reason, it makes it harder to believe Volkanovski would get a title shot should Topuria retain his title.

What works the most against Volkanovski has been his inability to get over with fans. Dominance doesn’t translate into popularity and Volkanovski is a prime example of that. Someone who has managed to get over with fans is Diego Lopes. The youthful Brazilian has managed to ascend the featherweight ladder at a rapid rate, thanks to a series of quick finishes over established vets, followed by dominant decisions over those closer to contender status. Coming off a win over former title challenger Brian Ortega and five consecutive wins overall, Lopes has both the resume and the fan support to make a case of fighting whoever emerges victorious between Topuria and Holloway.

Then again, Lopes does have a UFC loss on his resume, that coming against the still unbeaten Movsar Evloev. With each win Lopes piles up, Evloev’s win over him looks that much better, not to mention Evloev having a clear win over perennial featherweight contender Arnold Allen. Should Evloev manage to defeat former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling at UFC 310 in December, it’ll be hard to argue either Volkanovski or Lopes has a stronger resume than Evloev. However, should Sterling manage to defeat Evloev, he could very well steal the thunder of Evloev and jump the line. Given his previous championship pedigree, it makes it even more likely.

Of course, Evloev and Sterling both have reputations as less than exciting fighters. While Evloev has eight UFC wins under his belt, all eight of those have come via decision, only one of those picking him up a Fight of the Night bonus, that being his contest with Lopes. That said, that’s one more Fight of the Night bonuses that Sterling has picked up, Sterling having participated in 20 UFC contests. That’s not me saying whether it should or shouldn’t matter what matter they win by. That’s me saying I’d be shocked if that type of reputation doesn’t come into play when the UFC decides who has next.

I haven’t even touched on the possibility of Topuria and Holloway having enough of a barnburner that regardless of the outcome, an immediate rematch becomes the topic of discussion, an outcome that has as strong of a likelihood of happening as compared to any of the other possibilities previously discussed. Holloway has a total of 13 Performance or Fight of the Night awards while Topuria has 4 within his scant seven UFC contests. Should Topuria and Holloway deliver a contest decided by the slimmest of margins, expect Volkanovski, Lopes, Evloev, and Sterling to all become quite vocal in hopes of making themselves a more favorable choice. None of them have the same gift for gab akin to Conor McGregor, but all of them are smart enough to know fishes with closed mouths don’t get fed.

I may feel like the UFC is coming up short in their promotion of the contest, but that doesn’t shortchange my own personal excitement for the contest. I’m sure I’ll be willing to engage with anyone willing to discuss how it went down following its completion, not to mention what comes next for the title. I’m sure plenty will disagree on the latter... and I’ll have a hard time telling anyone they’re wrong in their thought process.