Opinion: How Long Can Dricus Du Plessis Stay on Top?

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Jan. 20 made its long-awaited return to Toronto with UFC 297, and while the card as a whole may not have lived up to expectations, fans at least got to witness history with the crowning of the promotion’s first-ever champion from South Africa.

Dricus Du Plessis defeated Sean Strickland by close split decision—48-47, 48-47, 47-48—in the five-round main event to capture the undisputed UFC middleweight title and end the Californian’s brief reign atop the division. While Du Plessis winning was not an upset by any means (both men closed at -110 odds), few expected the South African to win the fight on the scorecards. His lack of experience in the fourth and fifth rounds, as well as his unorthodox and sometimes seemingly “sloppy” style, had many observers questioning his cardio and whether or not he could compete with the unwavering Strickland if and when the championship rounds did arrive. Needless to say, Du Plessis surprised a lot of people, not only by going five rounds for the first time in his career but by finding his best moments later in the fight, especially Round 4.

Despite Du Plessis’ tremendous accomplishment, journalists and fans alike seem divided on whether or not he can hold on to his title for the rest of 2024.

There are a few enticing options for Du Plessis’ first title defense, but none are more compelling than former UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Up until September, many were arguing that Adesanya might be the greatest middleweight of all-time. He had nearly cleaned out the division, with wins over Alex Pereira, Robert Whittaker, Paulo Costa, Jared Cannonier, Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum and others. Du Plessis appeared to be the next clear title challenger for Adesanya, having beaten the likes of Whittaker, Derek Brunson and Darren Till in his rise through the 185-pound ranks.

However, a fight with Adesanya never came to fruition, with Du Plessis unable to make the two-month turnaround to face “The Last Stylebender” in September. The UFC desperately needed Adesanya to headline the card, as it marked the promotion’s return to Sydney, where he had become a massive star as a member of the City Kickboxing camp in Auckland, New Zealand. When Du Plessis rejected the offer, Strickland stepped in and proceeded to author the biggest upset of 2023 by dominating Adesanya to a five-round unanimous decision and becoming the UFC middleweight champion.

With Adesanya originally saying he wanted to take some time off from the sport, his being an immediate challenger for Du Plessis was thought to be unlikely. However, the two men have a heated history of trash talk and genuine dislike for one another. With Adesanya apparently willing to return to fight Du Plessis after the South African called him out during his post-fight interview at UFC 297, a showdown between the two seems more than likely to be next, perhaps at UFC 300 in April.

Aside from Adesanya, there are plenty of imposing contenders who have yet to face Du Plessis, with Costa, Cannonier and Khamzat Chimaev all coming off impressive victories over high-level opponents. Chimaev improved to 13-0 with a majority decision over Kamaru Usman at UFC 294 in October and holds other notable wins over Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns. He has been viewed as a future champion for years, but without a victory over anyone currently ranked in the Top 10 at 185 pounds, he may need to clear at least one more hurdle to secure a title shot.

If Du Plessis does, in fact, compete at UFC 300, it would leave him eight months or so to fight for a third time in 2024. Essentially, it is very likely that if he manages to defend his championship at UFC 300, he will have another title defense before the end of the year. No one questions Du Plessis’ talents, as he now finds himself on a nine-fight winning streak that includes his 7-0 run in the UFC. With that said, there is a deep list of challengers who are champing at the bit for an opportunity to fight for UFC gold; and with two potential title defenses in store for Du Plessis in 2024, it will be exceedingly difficult for him to retain his championship for the remainder of the calendar year.

No matter what happens, one thing seems certain: Fans are in for a treat when it comes to middleweight title fights in the months ahead.