Preview: UFC Fight Night 222 ‘Pavlovich vs. Blaydes’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will return to the familiar haunts of the UFC Apex in Las Vegas with a card that provides some intrigue, especially at the top. If nothing else, it is nice to see a heavyweight headliner worthy of that slot, as the UFC Fight Night 222 main event between Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes could set up the winner for a shot at the title. Beyond that, the main draw was wounded by the loss of the bantamweight co-feature between Yadong Song and Ricky Simon—they now shoulder the marquee for UFC Fight Night 223 on April 29—but it is always good to see Bobby Green in action; and a welterweight opener between Jeremiah Wells and Matthew Semelsberger should bring some impressive violence.

Now to the UFC Fight Night 222 “Pavlovich vs. Blaydes” preview:

Heavyweights

#3 HW | Sergei Pavlovich (17-1, 5-1 UFC) vs. #4 HW | Curtis Blaydes (17-3, 12-3 UFC)

ODDS: Blaydes (-170), Pavlovich (+145)

Can Blaydes finally get over the hump to top contender status? “Razor” came to the UFC as a highly touted prospect—his 2016 debut saw him as the betting favorite against Francis Ngannou—and has mostly lived up to the hype, which makes it all the more frustrating that he has suffered some inopportune losses. An absolutely massive human, Blaydes was immediately one of the best wrestlers in the UFC’s heavyweight division upon signing with the promotion, and he leveraged those skills easily. Blaydes has never been a top-tier power puncher, but he was able to rack up stoppage victories by taking his opponents down and mauling them with constant offense. Blaydes has also proven to have the requisite level of heavyweight durability, as for a time, only Ngannou had the power to actually knock him out. Even that aforementioned UFC debut saw Ngannou win by doctor stoppage, so it was not until their 2018 rematch that the former champion managed to knock Blaydes out cleanly in just 45 seconds. With the lesson learned that hunting for immediate takedowns could backfire against the division’s hardest hitters, Blaydes made some impressive additions to his striking game. He is still not the most comfortable fighter on his feet, but it was an achievement that he finished Junior dos Santos in 2020 without even getting a takedown. From there, Blaydes seemed ready to charge his way to a title shot. So naturally, he suffered a brutal knockout against Derrick Lewis in a fight he was otherwise dominating, forcing him to work his way back up the ladder of contention. So far so good in the two-plus years since the loss to Lewis. A quick injury stoppage win over Tom Aspinall in July was disappointing but put Blaydes on the type of winning streak that should clearly have him in title contention with another win. Can he get it done against Pavlovich?

Pavlovich came to the UFC in 2018 with a decent amount of hype himself. A former Greco-Roman wrestler, Pavlovich was already a proven talent, racking up an undefeated record against a strong level of competition on the Russian circuit. As such, it was not outlandish when the UFC decided to immediately throw him into the deep end against the still-relevant Alistair Overeem. However, in practice, Pavlovich got little done before Overeem marched him down, scored a takedown and pounded him out on the mat. The loss caused Pavlovich to make a massive adjustment—moving forward—and the Russian regained most of his hype during 2019 as a result, scoring quick knockouts of Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene. That figured to lead to a charge up to contender status, but instead, a combination of injuries and visa issues made Pavlovich a forgotten man. It would be nearly two and a half years after the Greene win before Pavlovich returned to the cage. Still, he has made up for lost time and used the back half of 2022 to become a legitimate title contender. After stopping countryman Shamil Abdurakhimov, Pavlovich ran through Lewis and Tai Tuivasa in less than a minute each to make himself the heavyweight division’s latest high-level threat. The Tuivasa win is particularly worrying from a Blaydes standpoint, as it is easily the most focused Pavlovich has been with his aggression and with leading the dance when it comes to exchanges. Blaydes has liked to feel things out with his striking in recent years before pivoting to his wrestling, and Pavlovich forcing the issue figures to make him pay for that tendency and end the fight in short order. However, this is clearly a fight where Blaydes is at risk of a knockout loss. It takes the hardest hitters in the sport to put Blaydes out, but Pavlovich has shown that type of one-shot power and proven himself as a finisher who can swarm his opponent with volume as soon as he senses that a knockout might be within reach. On the other side of the equation, if Blaydes can win the proverbial race and find a takedown before Pavlovich lands something big, the Russian looked fairly lost on his back against Overeem despite his wrestling background, suggesting that the Elevation Fight Team star is just as capable of winning this fight in a blowout, even if he will have to put in some work rather than finishing this immediately. This is a coinflip, and Blaydes gets the nod as the more proven fighter for better or for worse, even if this could clearly be a case of misplaced faith. The pick is Blaydes via second-round stoppage.

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Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Tavares vs. Silva
Green vs. Gordon
Lucindo vs. Walker
Wells vs. Semelsberger
The Prelims