Preview: UFC on ESPN 39

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday heads back to the familiar haunts of the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, where UFC on ESPN 39 essentially looks like a one-bout show. Fortunately, the marquee matchup is a good one, as former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos aims to continue a successful return to 155 pounds with a win over the surging Rafael Fiziev. It is a well-made fight in terms of style and stakes, though there is some entertaining stuff further down the card. The co-main event features an intriguing showdown between recent middleweight newcomers Caio Borralho and Armen Petrosyan, both of whom impressed earlier in 2022. Right below them sees bantamweight prospect Said Nurmagomedov get a stout test against Douglas Silva de Andrade, and after the requisite heavyweight fare slots Chase Sherman opposite Jared Vanderaa, a lightweight tilt pairing Michael Johnson with Jamie Mullarkey rounds out the bill.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 39 “Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev” preview:

Lightweights

#10 LW | Rafael Fiziev (11-1, 5-1 UFC) vs. #7 LW | Rafael dos Anjos (31-13, 20-11 UFC)

ODDS: Fiziev (-200), dos Anjos (+170)

Dos Anjos seems to finally be back where he belongs. His march up the lightweight ladder was slow and unspectacular, as he had a rough start to his UFC career back in 2008 and put in a lot of workmanlike performances once he got some momentum going. A one-sided 2013 win over Donald Cerrone put the Brazilian on the map as a potential contender, though a subsequent loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov seemed to immediately dull those hopes in the short term. However, dos Anjos got back to his winning ways and things broke right enough that, by the end of 2014, he was next up for then-champion Anthony Pettis. Dos Anjos was clearly positioned as the B-side for Pettis, who seemed poised to be the UFC’s next breakout star, but the ensuing fight was 25 minutes of dominance from the challenger, as dos Anjos’ well-honed pressure game stifled the champion in a grinding victory. Unfortunately, some poorly timed injuries prevented dos Anjos’ title reign from gaining much momentum. He missed most of 2015 before putting in his lone successful title defense, running over Cerrone in a shade over a minute in their rematch. A broken foot took him out of a big-money bout against then-featherweight champ Conor McGregor, who was seeking gold in a second division. By the time dos Anjos had healed, McGregor had moved onto his feud with Nate Diaz, leaving dos Anjos to defend his title against Eddie Alvarez—a bout that lasted about four minutes, as Alvarez scored a knockout and took the future McGregor fight from dos Anjos in the process. After one more loss to Tony Ferguson, dos Anjos moved up to welterweight for a run that had some strong returns early on, as his pressure-heavy style saw him through wins over Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny and Robbie Lawler. However, the Brazilian quickly hit a ceiling against the more powerful wrestlers at 170 pounds and eventually cut back to lightweight in 2020 for a run that has seemingly been a bit cursed. Multiple attempts to book a fight against Islam Makhachev fell through, delaying dos Anjos’ return to 155 pounds until he wound up facing Paul Felder, who stepped out of retirement to put up a game effort in a one-sided loss. That result did not stick much in people’s minds, particularly after dos Anjos missed all of 2021, so it was not until a March win over Renato Carneiro—also thrown together at the last moment—that dos Anjos seemed fully able to announce he was back. Carneiro had some moments late, but four rounds and change of the five-round affair were a dos Anjos masterclass, as he mauled his talented countryman to prove he can still be a physical force in his best division. Now 37, dos Anjos seems to have one last run left in him, so now comes a crucial test against a rising prospect in Fiziev.

Fiziev’s career got off to its own disappointing start. Rightfully hyped as a talented striker, “Ataman” lasted all of 86 seconds until the wild knockout power of Magomed Mustafaev led the Russian to score a knockout. Fiziev has done quite well to rebound, with a 2020 win over Marc Diakiese serving as his true breakout. Diakiese seemed to have found a groove heading into the bout, only for Fiziev to prove himself as an effective defensive wrestler and the much more dangerous and diverse striking threat. Carneiro did not provide much resistance for Fiziev, eating a knockout in a shade over four minutes, and the Sanford MMA rep went on to only prove himself further over the next year. Bobby Green was a game challenge, as Fiziev looked impressive in a way few fighters have against the crafty veteran until Green seemed to outpace him down the stretch. Fiziev followed that narrow victory with an excellent performance against Brad Riddell, scoring a beautiful third-round knockout with a spinning wheel kick just as Riddell seemed to be gaining momentum. Fiziev figures to be the faster fighter in this pairing, and there are points where he may leave dos Anjos flummoxed defensively. Fiziev is not necessarily an improvisational striker at times, but he is capable of throwing out a huge variety of strikes and combinations that should eventually land on something that works. However, the way to traditionally defeat dos Anjos has been to meet him head-on with pressure and get him moving backwards. That typically involves outwrestling dos Anjos, particularly with the Brazilian being much stronger now that he is back down at 155 pounds. It is unclear what to make of Fiziev’s gas tank, as he certainly seems to flag but does not actually slow down much in volume, at least to date. Dos Anjos is almost certainly going to find his way to turn this into a grinding and grimy fight, but it is uncertain if he can do enough to actually wear Fiziev out to the point that the Kazakhstan-born fighter is no longer the more effective striker. Just because dos Anjos is going to find his type of fight at some point and Fiziev does not have the typical style to defeat the former champ, the bet is that the Brazilian can do enough to bank the championship rounds and walk away with a victory. With that said, this is an excellent pairing that the UFC did quite well to keep revisiting even after multiple bookings fell through. The pick is dos Anjos via narrow decision.

Jump To »
Borralho vs. Petrosyan
Nurmagomedov vs. Silva de Andrade
Vanderaa vs. Sherman
Mullarkey vs. Johnson
The Prelims