Prime Picks: UFC 272 ‘Covington vs. Masvidal’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will bank on the success of the grudge-match angle to sell tickets and entice fans into throwing about $80 after tax at an event with no belts on the line. The main card claims all the best action as far as betting options go, and grappling may win out across its lineup. The UFC 272 edition of Prime Picks brings forth a reasonable prop bet that makes the headliner worthwhile, a pair of moderate favorites who appear to be steals and a rough stylistic matchup for a big man who wants to stand and trade.

Colby Covington Wins by Decision (+100)

Throughout his storied career, Jorge Masvidal has never quite been able to get over the hump of top-tier competition. Whether falling short to Gilbert Melendez for the Strikeforce crown, succumbing to an inverted triangle choke in the semifinals of an early Bellator MMA tournament, bowing to Demian Maia in a UFC title eliminator or winding up on the short end in a pair of outings versus the consensus pound-for-pound king in Kamaru Usman, Masvidal has largely struggled in the biggest fights. Breakout performances against Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz nearly brought him to the top of the mountain, only to have him come tumbling back down to earth while offering little of his own to stake his claim as the man to beat. This headlining tilt with Covington—which may or may not be for the nonsensical BMF title that should rightfully belong to Usman—is yet another opportunity for him to punch his ticket to greatness, but the deck is largely stacked against him.

Covington is an equal-opportunity threat, at least when it comes to winning fights. Possessing neither the lights-out power of other opponents—and occasionally Masvidal—or slick submission skills that can snatch up a win in an instant, the outspoken Floridian has a bread-and-butter style that gives many of his counterparts pause. A high-volume striking approach, with pressure boxing that makes opponents fight off their back feet, is one of his two effective skill sets. A smotheringly efficient wrestling attack is the second prong of his two-piece with tap water, where he can win rounds, even dominantly so, without often feeling like he can pull off a finish. His lone stoppage in over five years came when Tyron Woodley’s body betrayed him and the ex-champ fell victim to injury. Otherwise, Covington’s best path to victory is to grapple Masvidal for all his worth, never allowing “Gamebred” to get any offense off and drowning him in methodical yet less-than-thrilling top control.

It is not necessarily one single takedown that Covington can land that will take Masvidal out of it, and it should come as a shock to no one in the T-Mobile Arena that night if he goes for takedowns early and often. It is both his continuous threat of the takedown and his unrelenting forward movement that will take Masvidal out of his game. Covington’s chin is not unstoppable, and Usman cracked it the first time and nearly put him away in the rematch. A spectacular flying knee, a la the one Askren tasted, is not likely in the cards for Masvidal, as Covington does not often shoot for naked takedowns in the center of the cage recklessly. Instead, the fight IQ of the ex-interim titleholder should be enough to thwart Masvidal, and the trash talk between the two will cancel out and should not play much of a factor when they tangle. Covington has not historically hit hard enough to put Masvidal away on the feet or on the canvas, and “Gamebred” will never tap out; his only two submission defeats were of the technical variety when he went out. If you believe Masvidal can spring magic once more, his line by stoppage—it allows for both a knockout and a submission should he hurt Covington on the feet and elect to snatch onto a neck—is a clean +400.

Rafael dos Anjos (-160)

The winner of the dos Anjos lottery was not Islam Makhachev, not Ilia Topuria, not Diego Ferreira, not Terrance McKinney and not even Paul Felder. Instead, former featherweight rear-naked choke artist Renato Carneiro earned the spot in the co-headliner of UFC 272, with the matchup taking place at a 160-pound catchweight. Taking the fight on less than a week’s notice, “Moicano” had to fly up from Brazil practically the day he accepted in order to make sure he made it in time and could pass COVID-19 protocols—provided the promotion is still running any semblance of a bubble; dos Anjos’ original opponent, Rafael Fiziev, self-reported his illness. Spending upwards of 20 hours on a flight on fight week, plus having to reach the designated weight of 160 pounds, does not bode well for “Moicano.” Getting the former lightweight king, who has been preparing for a five-round affair, at anywhere beneath -200 to -250 is unquestionably worth pursuing.

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Through his UFC tenure, dos Anjos has competed beyond the third round eight times. By comparison, “Moicano” has never gone past the 15-minute mark while earning eight wins inside the Octagon. The experience of fighting late into a bout and pacing himself while never falling into any serious danger beyond dropping a round is crucial for dos Anjos. Win or lose, each of the last seven outings for Carneiro have ended before reaching Round 3, and it is widely expected that he will start to fade after the second period. The method of victory for the ex-155-pound champ is not as significant with the moneyline currently presented, as there is even a question of whether “Moicano” can make weight ahead of the meeting. For Carneiro to win, he would likely have to become the first fighter to ever submit dos Anjos, and on extremely short notice with no fight camp, that is quite unlikely.

Bryce Mitchell (-155)

When Edson Barboza faces a pure grappler—an obstacle he has encountered many times across his highlight-filled career—one of two outcomes usually occurs. The first is less likely but no less exciting: He stuffs the lion’s share of the attempts, pounding on opponents and even putting them away on occasion. Just ask Beneil Dariush or Makwan Amirkhani in the last several years. The other is far starker for the Brazilian knockout artist: He gets thoroughly and completely dominated, but it took competitors the level of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Kevin Lee to achieve this feat. While Mitchell does not share a fraction of the wrestling or sambo accolades the aforementioned men do, his grappling is no less effective at its suffocating best. Barboza could catch his opponent on the way in with a devastating blow, and that alternate line is around +300 for the knockout, but Mitchell’s slick, damage-averse style can keep his head attached to his body until he grounds the Brazilian.

“Thug Nasty” and his camouflage shorts make no allusions as to what he plans on doing inside the cage. Every single one of his UFC outings has been accompanied by at least one submission attempt, and even though he only notched one sub across 10 tries, making Barboza fight off the setups will keep him busy and not allow him to catch his breath or get any semblance of distance to let his strikes go. None of Mitchell’s past opponents have hit nearly as hard as Barboza, so he might get surprised if he eats shots on his way in, but once the proud Arkansan plows through the danger zone, Barboza’s offense becomes substantially limited. It could be a grinding performance, especially as Mitchell prefers submission and position over ground-and-pound, but it should be enough to record his 15th career win without a defeat.

Sergey Spivak Wins Inside Distance (+130)

Announcing that you have a great deal of weight left to cut mere days before the fight should draw reason for concern—and rightfully so. Either the fighter is posturing, playing the game and trying to get his competitor overconfident, or he is not savvy enough to realize this is not something to be proud of. Greg Hardy claimed on Wednesday that he needs to cut about 30 pounds by Friday morning, and it might not be that far-fetched given that he was very nearly the first heavyweight in company history to miss weight, tipping the scales at 266.5 pounds on his first attempt ahead of his UFC Fight Night 181 matchup in 2020. The stylistic advantage already went to Spivak before weight even played a factor, and any signs of Hardy struggling mentally or physically on fight week will be even more beneficial to the Moldovan in terms of getting him out of there before the final bell.

Before his encounter with Carlos Felipe in 2020, Spivak had notched finishes in every one of his victories, and he came quite close to earning a stoppage late in Round 3. A bizarre heavyweight slopfest with Alexey Oleynik—a man he could not possibly submit—marked the only other time he had won a fight on the scorecards. Hardy may not have figured things out 12 fights into his pro career, but he does bring with him quick hands, decent but not plus power for a man of his size and good leg kicks. When put on his back or forced to fight off takedowns, he has struggled immensely. “The Polar Bear” will somewhat smaller than Hardy in the cage, but one takedown may very well be all he needs to pound Hardy out or snag a submission. Unless the former football star can explode out of the position, a la Derrick Lewis, he will be at the Moldovan’s mercy until the finish mercifully materializes. If you think the much-maligned Hardy can get his hand raised and pop Spivak and his sometimes-questionable fight IQ in the chops, Hardy landing the knockout resides around ¬+300.