Prime Picks: UFC 285 ‘Jones vs. Gane’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship goes all-out with one of its more impressively built pay-per-view main cards in recent memory on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Two belts loom for the victors, with one looking to stay in the iron grip of its champion and the other vacant for plenty of marbles. Half of the fights on the billing see betting favorites of -300 or above, while one notable newcomer is looking to break the record for the heaviest favorite in company history. The UFC 285 edition of Prime Picks cracks into the evenly matched headliner, urges caution on a hot 185-pound up-and-comer, tears into the lunacy of one betting line and pitches a longer parlay that should cash without much concern.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Jon Jones-Ciryl Gane Goes to Decision (-140)

Both sides picking Jones or Gane are fairly confident in their assertions for their preferred fighter to end UFC 285 as the new heavyweight champion. Those pointing to Jones simply have to look through his practically unmatched resume, suggesting that a scenario where he loses is unimaginable until it actually happens. The ones picking Gane as the step too far up at heavyweight, prognosticating that his physical characteristics will give Jones fits, as “Bones” will have a lesser reach advantage while also being the shorter fighter this time. Photos from the first media shoot on Wednesday came out showing Jones’ physique, prompting many voices within the community to question his commitment to the new weight class. Despite the query of cultivating versus harvesting body mass, the smartest money may still rest on the duration of the bout itself rather than its ultimate outcome.

Jones has hinted at a move to heavyweight for the last decade, and after relinquishing his light heavyweight throne in 2020 with the intention of finally taking the step up, he took over three years off from competition. In the meantime, about half of Gane’s pro career has taken place, with six matches against six of the more daunting challenges his division could muster. The active Gane has shown a variety of skills, none more impressive than his ability to snake charm opponents and force them to fight his game and ultimately succumb to a low-stakes kickboxing affair. Save for former champion Francis Ngannou, no fighter had tested the Frenchman’s prowess should things hit the canvas, and Ngannou provided a usable blueprint should one be able to replicate his success. Jones may not have the raw, terrifying power of Ngannou to throw a 250-pound man around like a chew toy, but his wrestling still may be his greatest asset. Whether fighting for takedowns or keeping things on the mat, Jones can rip minutes off the clock at a time in the pursuit of grappling.

The 205-pound record book is practically the Jones story, as he holds the top spot or is among the Top 5 in almost every category worth mentioning. While wrestling is his bread-and-butter, he is an elite striker not because of his fundamentals but because of his unorthodoxy. Jones does celebrate the most significant strikes landed by a wide margin and is among the most accurate, in addition to his high striking differential and keen defense. Gane fights exceptionally long, but Jones can, as well, and the two men could test one another out with jabs and low kicks as they feel things out early on. Gane will hold the power advantage on the feet, and he has no issue going the full 25 minutes if need be. “Bones” has habitually tried to beat opponents at their own game, but hanging out on the feet for five rounds might prove to be to his disadvantage against the shredded French fighter. If Jones looks to pick up the win—this would not be an upset, as he is currently around -160—he will need to rely on his wrestling, which has not really reared its head since he handled Anthony Smith in 2019. As long as the two men go the distance, the victor is not necessary for this pick.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Dricus Du Plessis (-225)

To many within the sport, the term “gatekeeper” is one of insult, essentially stating that a competitor is unable to reach a certain level while keeping those trying to rise above him down. There are many types of this fighter in the company, let alone across MMA, including those who almost exclusively face Dana White’s Contender Series signees and some who indicate whether an athlete is worth of Top 15 consideration or even up in the title picture. While the word itself has gathered plenty of negative connotation over the years, it is still reasonable to say that some can serve as ultimate litmus tests for talents. Enter Derek Brunson, a man who has not yet fought for a UFC strap but has only lost to the absolute elite in the middleweight division. Since crossing over from Strikeforce in 2012, Brunson has done little more than amass 14 wins—two shy of the middleweight division’s record—while racking up two streaks of five straight victories along the way. The six men to defeat him inside the Octagon are all former champions or contenders ranked within the Top 5. While Du Plessis may graduate to the next level against Brunson, as a -225 favorite, the value is not on his side.

With serious power in his hands, slick submission chops on the floor and a real killer instinct like the best in the sport, Du Plessis is undoubtedly the real deal. His four-fight winning streak has saw him buzzsaw through opposition, with a few bumps on his way to crushing victories. On the other side, Brunson was staring down the barrel of a six-fight winning streak and had Jared Cannonier on the ropes before completely running out of steam in Round 2. Neither man is known for boundless cardio, but it is Brunson who has often surprised young whippersnappers that expected the Simon Phoenix lookalike would be an easy out. Brunson’s wrestling and constant threats may prove to be an adequate foil for the South African, and while Du Plessis still may win, the line should be closer. The bottom may fall out sooner than later for the 39-year-old Brunson, with plenty of miles on his ledger, but he is still very much a tough ask for anyone trying to break into the top echelon of the division.

DOG WILL HUNT

Jamie Pickett (+1100)

Making his UFC debut after two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series, the 3-0 Bo Nickal will come into his first fight inside the Octagon as a mind-boggling -1700 betting favorite; some books have him upwards of -2000 or even higher. For some context, in the history of the promotion, spanning over 7,000 fights across more than 630 events thus far, just 61 fights have closed with a favorite bringing odds at -1000 or higher. When kicking it to -1500 or greater, that tally dwindles to seven. The record was set for the most substantially favored fighter in company history in April 2022, when the unbeaten Alexander Romanov clocked in at a wild -2000 against Chase Sherman at UFC on ESPN 35. This means that some reputable sportsbooks will have Nickal’s very first walk to the cage accompanied by betting odds that might be greater than any mismatch or sure thing to ever grace the Octagon. Even if Nickal steamrolls Pickett like many expect, there is ample value on the North Carolina native at astronomical +1100 odds.

A college wrestling sensation, Nickal made his way to the sport by winning three NCAA Division I titles and serving as a four-time All-American. Olympic aspirations fell through courtesy of David “Magic Man” Taylor, who shut Nickal down during the 2020 Olympic Trials for the U.S. team; Nickal took home a silver medal at 86 kilograms, or 190 pounds, which was nothing at which to sneeze. As many wrestlers over the years have learned, wrestling is not MMA. It is part of MMA and a base that many greats have used to excel to great heights, but it is not the be-all and end-all. Pickett might be the right first test for Nickal in the UFC, as he is schooled in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but not a demonstrated black belt, and his takedown defense is solid but not immaculate. If this sport has shown fans something over the years, it is that anything can and often does happen once the cage door closes. Questions still loom for Nickal. What happens when takedowns do not come as easily? How does he handle getting punched squarely in the mouth? Can he keep an active pace for more than a few minutes? These questions may not be answered in his promotional debut and the wrestler may very well yet get his hand raised without breaking much of a sweat, but a flier on Pickett at these odds is by no means offensive.

An Accumulation Contemplation:

Valentina Shevchenko (-900)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-500)
Tabatha Ricci (-310)
Farid Basharat (-460)
Total Odds: +115

In order to push this parlay into plus-money territory, a fourth leg needed to be added to it from the co-main event. Shevchenko is going to battle ex-strawweight Alexa Grasso, and to keep it concise, Grasso’s volume-first boxing is nothing that the current women’s flyweight champion has not already seen during her current title reign; and the Mexican challenger’s takedown defense hardly insurmountable. The champ’s place anchoring this list is for the multiplier, because otherwise, it is a tough choice to drill down to her perceived inevitable method of victory. Rakhmonov’s path to victory is similar to Shevchenko, as Geoff Neal can be taken down and controlled for lengthy stretches. Among the larger questions is whether or not Rakhmonov keeps his 100% finish rate intact and whether or not Neal can survive when dumped on the canvas before being constantly threatened with chokes and absorbing strikes. The Kazakhstani contender will place himself as yet another looming welterweight towards the top of the ladder after his performance against Neal.

Lighter divisions are rarely kind to the elderly, and at 115 pounds, a 40-year-old Jessica Penne with 20 pro fights over the last 16-plus years is practically an octogenarian. Against her will stand the favored “Baby Shark” Ricci, who will be just about 12 years the junior of the former Invicta Fighting Championships 105-pound titleholder. Penne will maintain serious height and reach advantages for as long as the fight remains on the feet, but if Ricci’s recent outings are any indication, it may not be for long. Penne has historically welcomed takedowns or at least not always fought them off tooth-and-nail because of traps she sets once the fight hits the mat. Whether using her long legs to set up a triangle choke or scrambling effectively enough to snatch an armbar, the vet could rest on those laurels. Against the Brazilian grappler, that will not work, as Ricci can stay on top, fight off any submission setups and maintain position to control the fight for all three rounds and hit this leg of the accumulator.

The hopes of this parlay may be tested right out of the gate with an impressive young talent in Basharat making his first jaunt inside the Octagon. Da'Mon Blackshear will undoubtedly serve as his toughest test to date—no disrespect to Allan Begosso—and a far cry from the days of Basharat meeting winless foes in FightStar Championship. A former Cage Fury Fighting Championships titleholder, Blackshear survived a rough late going against Youssef Zalal his last time out to force a draw, using his grappling to take the first two rounds before it almost fell apart on him. Basharat will welcome Blackshear’s attempts to drag the fight to the mat, and some fun exchanges between the two on the floor will eventually lead to the London Shootfighters product taking over and winning out to start the night off right for this four-piece.