Prime Picks: UFC 300 ‘Pereira vs. Hill’

At long last, it is time for the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s 300th numbered event, only not actually because of cancelations and scheduling snafus over the years. The round number of 300 has drawn plenty of attention, and the UFC has stacked the deck in a way that might set the standard for tentpole cards. Every fight on the billing is must-see TV. Therefore, we will deviate from our tradition of cherry-picking on Prime Picks for the best options. For UFC 300, we offer one bet (or more) for every single fight, which leads us down some daring paths as we hunt for big money.

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All 12 current & former champions fighting at #UFC300 pic.twitter.com/eHwWHdKxgT

— UFC (@ufc) April 11, 2024

Alex Pereira (-130)

In a pure striker-versus-striker affair in the main attraction, Pereira has quite the resume compared to relative combat sports neophyte Jamahal Hill. While Hill holds more bouts in MMA, Pereira’s 40 kickboxing matches will count for something when he steps into the cage against someone who wants to bang. The concern of Hill pursuing a takedown might be a bit far-reaching—after all, he has never once attempted a takedown in his UFC career—and Pereira’s defense is solid. Hill’s power is excellent, but Pereira’s is exceptional, and the timing of his left hook should be the difference maker.

Weili Zhang Wins Inside Distance (-110)

One of the heaviest betting favorites on the card, Zhang faces countrywoman Xiaonan Yan in a matchup that will likely display that there are levels to the strawweight division. The only woman to beat Zhang in the Octagon thus far is Rose Namajunas, and Yan has not yet displayed the weapons that would allow her to replicate that feat. On the other hand, Zhang will be swinging hammers right from the opening bell. With five rounds to work, “Magnum” should need only two or three to get the job done and pull off this prop bet.

Max Holloway (+130)

Does Holloway have the fight style needed to defuse a lethal striker in Justin Gaethje? That question will loom large, and the first round may not answer it, as Holloway historically starts slow and builds to a crescendo of violence. Gaethje can exceed Alexander Volkanovski’s mixed offense with heavier strikes, including disabling leg kicks Holloway has a penchant for absorbing. “Blessed” moving up to 155 pounds the right way over a few months, coupled with his constant pressure, could give Gaethje fits and allow him to spring the upset. Given his unmatched durability and pace, Holloway is hard to ignore at plus money.

Charles Oliveira (+180)

This might be the most surprising betting line across the lineup. The former lightweight champion comes in as a substantial underdog against Russian-Armenian wrestler Arman Tsarukyan, and that does not make sense to many prognosticators. Oliveira has shed his past mentality of folding when things do not go his way, and a one-sided loss to Islam Makhachev does not mean Tsarukyan can follow suit. If Tsarukyan wants to battle on the feet, the muay thai of “Do Bronx” is dangerous, and if he tries to take it down, the Brazilian holds the most submissions in UFC history. A threat anywhere the fight lasts, Oliveira is one of the most live underdogs one will ever encounter.

Cody Brundage (+1100)

Impossible favorite Bo Nickal (-2500) may run right through Brundage, as most expect. The four-time NCAA All-American wrestler might pick up Brundage and slam him straight through the cage floor, and few would be surprised. However, this step up in competition merits attention, as it is still unknown how Nickal reacts when struck cleanly. A betting line this lopsided practically begs for a flier on the underdog, given the alternative is unreasonable, with Nickal Wins Inside Distance at -900, and drilling down to a specific type of stoppage is an unknown coinflip.

Jiri Prochazka (-110)

Prochazka and Aleksandar Rakic are not far removed from injuries requiring lengthy recovery periods, but the latter has the distinction of not competing in nearly two years. If he needs to get his sea legs about him, he will be in for a rough evening, as Prochazka will likely pressure him immediately and throw the kitchen sink at him. While Rakic prefers to fight a low-risk kickboxing match at his range, the former champ is a buzz saw of flying feet and fists, with a fighting style best described as “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.” With the matchup sporting even odds, Prochazka has several advantages that make him a solid moneyline play.

Aljamain Sterling-Calvin Kattar Goes the Distance (-190)

For the first time, the pick is not for one specific combatant but for a measure of time. Even going for broke like this UFC 300 edition of Prime Picks, we exercise a modicum of caution in a fight with so many unknowns. Teammate Merab Dvalishvili claimed that Sterling weighed 170 pounds on Wednesday. Whether or not he was spreading disinformation, it is pure speculation on how the former bantamweight champ will look on the scales and beyond. Katter is a solid boxer with stout takedown defense, and Sterling is an unorthodox quasi-striker who would like to grapple any way he can. This nullifying clash has all the makings of going to the final bell, unlike others on the main card.

Holly Holm (+325)

At 42 years of age, the wheels still have not yet fallen off for the former bantamweight queen. But for a lapse in judgment, Holm was faring well against Mayra Bueno Silva, and Kayla Harrison is not likely the type who can snatch up a speedy submission in that way. Holm’s wide base and long legs can help her defy the inevitable shots from the two-time Olympic gold medalist, and while she does not generally maintain the power to make someone pay for their approach, she makes up for it with volume when needed. If this fight remains on the feet for its majority, Holm has the upper hand, and it will be all up to the UFC newcomer to drag the fight to where she wants it. This line may be a bit off-kilter, giving Holm ample value for the upset.

Diego Lopes (-140)

If Sodiq Yusuff still ran his “Unprofessional Breakdown” series, his pick may differ from the one suggested here. It is a battle of momentum, as Lopes had a breakout 2023 season even with a loss, while Yusuff has not won a fight since 2022; it came against a fighter in Don Shainis who admitted he probably did not deserve to be in the UFC yet. Lopes will be slightly taller and longer, but it will not matter if he crashes the pocket swinging wrecking balls. Unless “Super Sodiq” can use Lopes’ momentum against him, this contest may see the Lobo Gym trainee roll downhill fast.

Jalin Turner Wins by TKO/KO (-135)

Submission specialist Renato Carneiro has gotten himself in trouble in the past trying to throw down against far more dynamic strikers such as Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung. If he does not immediately engage in grappling mode, the long, lanky Turner will snipe him. With “Moicano” only holding one submission defeat—it came in a comeback from Brian Ortega—it is much more probable that if Turner wins, it will be from his hands. The five-inch reach advantage will be on full display for “The Tarantula,” who can land the knockout blow if he does not let the Brazilian get close.

Jessica Andrade (-140)

Few strikers at strawweight have gotten the upper hand on Andrade over the years, and almost all of them held a UFC belt at some time. Time and time again, “Bate Estaca” has proved that a foe can be taller and rangier, and it does not make a lick of difference. The three inches on the arms Andrade gives up will be easily surpassed when she attacks at her marauding best, giving Marina Rodriguez little room to roam. Should her countrywoman, a well-schooled muay thai practitioner in her own right, give her any problems, Andrade can hit the safety valve of a level change. The multiple avenues to victory give the former champ a leg up in this pairing.

Jim Miller (+155)

At UFC 100, Miller outhustled Mac Danzig to pick up the win in 2009. Seven years later, Miller punched out Takanori Gomi at UFC 200 in just over two minutes. Miller can make an unmatchable mark on MMA history should he get past Bobby Green, and he is primed to do so. Green is more effective and far more active on the feet, but even at this stage in his career, Miller is the superior ground fighter. If Miller walks into a big punch—the type that put Grant Dawson out—he might be at risk. Otherwise, Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller has the magic to pull one more rabbit out of the hat, which makes him a worthy option at plus money.

Deiveson Figueiredo-Cody Garbrandt Ends Inside Distance (-175)

Although these two bantamweight brawlers like to show off as more technical strikers, their true passions lie in chomping down on their respective gumshields and throwing leather. This has put both of them at risk, as their durability may not be what it once was. Figueiredo showed signs of concern in the later Brandon Moreno bouts, while four of the last five losses for Garbrandt have ended via knockout. The two bantamweight Beyblades will spin, clashing mightily and ferociously, and only one will stay standing. It will serve as the perfect card opener to whip the rabid fans into a frenzy, as the first fight of the evening concludes well before the final bell.