Prime Picks: UFC 303 ‘Pereira vs. Prochazka 2

All dogs go to heaven on the latest pay-per-view offering from the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Once billed as a mega event where Michael Chandler would have received the Prime Picks endorsement to procure the upset over Conor McGregor, the top of the lineup has transformed to give us several decent betting options and some entertaining scraps instead. For this unusual UFC 303 fight card, we turn to four competitors primed for upsets, bucking the trend of past PPV picks to hunt for plus money across the lineup.

’DOG WILL HUNT: PART 1

Jiri Prochazka (+115)

A question often asked about high-level fights, especially regarding rematches: “If these two fought 10 times, how many times would Fighter X win?” In the case of the UFC 303 headliner, Prochazka already faced and came up crushingly short to Alex Pereira, who proved his fundamentals and disruptive power were enough to take care of the wild Czech combatant. With someone so unpredictable as Prochazka, it will be on Pereira to ensure the first go-round was the likely, expected outcome for at least seven or eight of these hypothetical matchups. Does Pereira have Prochazka’s number, or can “BJP” make the necessary improvements in less than eight months to triumph over the Brazilian? With all of the unrelenting offense that Prochazka brings to the table, it is too difficult to count him out. Any time he comes in at plus money—save against someone like Jon Jones—Prochazka should be given a second look.

“Poatan” dismantled Prochazka thanks partly to a series of viciously effective low kicks. In his last appearance, the former light heavyweight king showed he is still quite vulnerable to those strikes, as Aleksandar Rakic had him on rubbery legs by the fight’s midpoint. It is part of Prochazka’s strategy that he is exceptionally hittable. Having a low guard while approaching from odd angles gives him ways to strike that many do not expect. It is no accident that 26 of his 30 victories are by knockout, including the retirement of Vadim Nemkov years back. This also opens him up to getting tagged, and his chin and recoverability have allowed him to succeed for this long.

Less than two minutes into their first meeting, Pereira had forced the Jetsaam Gym BRNO product to limp with his leg kicks. Switching stances did not alleviate the pain for long, but attempting to wrestle did. Prochazka managed to dump “Poatan” to the floor courtesy of a single-leg entry, and he held top position until Pereira sat up and wall-walked to freedom. Leaning on grappling would be to Prochazka’s benefit, but every time he has to close the distance, he will be forced to get into the range of the Brazilian’s lethal short hooks. Before getting clipped, Prochazka had ample success both on the feet and on the mat, and there were several positive takeaways despite getting finished—questionable stoppage aside. On two separate occasions, Prochazka had stung “Poatan.” This second encounter could go quite differently than the first if things play out slightly differently. Understandably, Pereira is the favorite, given that he won the first bout via knockout, but one cannot sleep on Prochazka, or they are going to sleep.

’DOG WILL HUNT: PART 2

Anthony Smith (+115)

Ahead of UFC 301, Smith served as the lone candidate for the “’Dog Will Hunt” category. With him at +425, it was an enticing opportunity, and he ended up upsetting the highly lauded Vitor Petrino. Ever the opportunist—his 92% finish rate includes 11 of his last 12 wins—Smith needed one opening, one lapse in judgment to land the fight-ending guillotine choke. With as many miles as Smith has on the odometer, having actively competed since 2008 and having engaged in many titanic tussles while enduring an inhuman amount of damage over the years, it is a marvel that he still lords over most of the 205-pound category. After the round-robin that started with Jamahal Hill-Khalil Rountree shifted to Smith-Roman Dolidze, this new matchup is one that “Lionheart” can feast on.

If Smith ends up recording the finish, he will be the first to put the Georgian powerhouse away inside the distance. It may surprise some that Dolidze is actually the older man of the two, albeit by nine days. The physical toll on their respective bodies is a chasm of a difference when weighing the 15 walks to the ring or cage for Dolidze against Smith entering into professional MMA fight No. 58. Regarding physical tools, it is possible that Dolidze, a recent middleweight, will appear larger than his current light heavyweight adversary, even with Smith’s slight height advantage. In terms of accolades, Smith is a far more accurate striker while putting up greater volume than Dolidze. “Lionheart” will never shore up his defensive holes, allowing Dolidze to try to time a kill shot with a big overhand right. If the Georgian looks to take the fight to the mat, Smith’s active offensive guard can threaten from the bottom, or a sweep can be in order. As long as Smith does not get flattened out and pounded behind the barn by the muscle-bound bruiser, he is in this battle until the bitter end.

’DOG WILL HUNT: PART 3

Michael Page (+130)

Many have thought they could figure out the Page puzzle, but very few have done so. Douglas Lima decided in 2019 that he was sick of Page’s antics, and he squared up with the elusive Brit, swept out his leg with a kick and filled the room with uppercuts. Logan Storley may have eked out a win, but it was thanks to his wrestling—a tool that Ian Garry has not displayed with prowess anywhere close to the four-time NCAA All-American. Even at 37, as timing and speed deteriorate, Page remains nigh-impossible to land strikes on cleanly. Kevin Holland, known for his output and ability to use his range effectively, struggled greatly against the ex-Bellator MMA standout. “MVP” is the ultimate trap fight, and he can take the undefeated record away from the Irishman and make him look silly along the way.

Finding a suitable training partner this side of Raymond Daniels or Stephen Thompson is a difficult ask when trying to prepare for Page. The Brit uses every inch of his range and then some, lunging and seemingly placing himself in dangerous opportunities, only to be meters away when an opponent commits to throwing at him. With five inches in the arms, Page can potshot Garry and use his unorthodox footwork and movement to the fullest. Garry’s best chance at success is to crowd the flashy striker while getting in his face and never letting up. Cornering the London Shootfighters mainstay is quite a proposition, as he seems to make reads that allow him to skate away from hazardous positions before getting plunked. One day, the bottom may fall out, and a series of brutal knockouts might ensue. With Page still appearing at the top of his game, it is not UFC 303 that likely spells his downfall. At plus money, “MVP” is a worthy pursuit.

’DOG WILL HUNT: PART 4

Yanis Ghemmouri (+850)

Payton Talbott may very well end up being the truth. Trouncing Cameron Saaiman was a great first stiff test in the big leagues—no disrespect to Nick Aguirre—but he is firmly still in the “prospect” category at 25, with eight pro wins on his unbeaten ledger. Many observers are keen on comparing him to the likes of current bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley, and not just because of a springy coiffure. His skills are evident, and going from Saaiman to Ghemmouri may seem more of a lateral move than one climbing to the sky. While Talbott is the rightful favorite, it is preposterous that this youngster should, in his third UFC outing, clock in as one of the biggest betting favorites in company history.

Since the above article dropped, four competitors have closed with lines of -1600 or higher: Alexander Romanov, Bo Nickal (twice) and Umar Nurmagomedov. For additional reference, Amanda Nunes came in at -1100 before being thwarted by Julianna Pena in 2021, and Valentina Shevchenko served as a -900 favorite ahead of her first pairing with Alexa Grasso in 2023. While Romanov was facing Chase Sherman, Nurmagomedov took on an untested newcomer and Nickal might end up being a generational talent; there is still plenty of room for growth when it comes to Talbott. He is not a quick-strike finisher, and he has not displayed one-shot prowess—all of his knockouts are of the technical variety. It is not likely that Ghemmouri will test his grappling, and Talbott, on paper, should run circles around him. Still, this is MMA and fight fans have to expect the unexpected. In a sport where a sponsor logo might be slippery and result in a twisted ankle, where one well-aimed elbow can open a fight-ending cut, where excited competitors can get overzealous and launch knees to grounded opponents and so on, a fighter with odds this high is almost unconscionable. It is not an endorsement for the Frenchman but rather an expectation that anything can and often does happen in unarmed combat. A flier at these odds is not unreasonable.