Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 200 ‘Hermansson vs. Strickland’

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The 200th numbered Ultimate Fighting Championship Fight Night card comes to fans at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday, and the fanfare for this achievement is at a minimum given the billing the promotion presents. A lackluster show with fairly decent matchmaking still provides a few solid betting options, even if multiple props appear more attractive than straight moneylines on victors. Whether through bouts expected to end by stoppage, wily vets who can still pull off wins, the high expectations of a new signee or an underdog who should be a pick-’em, the UFC Fight Night 200 edition of Prime Picks holds something for everybody.

Jack Hermansson-Sean Strickland Goes Under 3.5 Rounds (+125)

Many pundits and analysts alike point to this being a clear-cut clash of two styles, with the grappling edge for Hermansson and striking in favor of Strickland due to crisp technical boxing. Hermansson has notched takedowns in seven of his last eight appearances, with the zero coming against Kelvin Gastelum, who hit a heel hook in 78 seconds without needing a takedown. Since moving to middleweight, Strickland has enjoyed radical success in his career reinvention, and he has not succumbed to a takedown since facing current pound-for-pound ace Kamaru Usman. Always willing to stick his fists in his opponent’s faces, the high volume and increased power for Strickland has tipped the scales in his favor following his departure from 170 pounds. The finishes could materialize from either man at any time, and at plus money for the under of 3.5 rounds—this means the fight will end before 2:30 of Round 4—is too good to pass up.

Hermansson will find a brick wall before him in Strickland, at least when it comes to improved takedown defense, and he will have to wade through fire to get close enough to get the Californian to the ground. Chain wrestling could play into his success, if he takes Strickland’s hands out of the equation to grind it out in the clinch while looking for body locks and other takedown entries. Should this occur, he could wrench a tiring “Tarzan” down to the mat or force a scramble to snag hold of a guillotine choke. Strickland’s confidence in his ability could be a detriment, as he was marginally thrown off his game when Jack Marshman never waned despite taking a serious beating on the feet. Should things go Strickland’s way and he not showboat when pulling away on the scorecards, he can lay into Hermansson and stave off any takedown entries at will until he puts the Swede down for the count.

A pick for this under is safer considering both men have registered stoppage victories late into the third frame, when their respective gas tanks hold up and others fade. Selecting that this main event will not make it past the midpoint of the fourth round is a more reasonable option than trying to nail down if Hermansson can get the finish (+360) or if Strickland can get it done inside the distance (+160). If you wish to choose a winner in this headliner, lean towards Strickland based on his standup acumen. Marvin Vettori stung Hermansson on the feet repeatedly in their five-rounder at the end of 2020, and Strickland historically hits harder and more often. The rare but possible club-and-sub in which Strickland hurts Hermansson and fishes for a choke is also possible, and it would blow up the option for Strickland by TKO/KO at +220.

Alexis Davis Wins by Decision (+110)

Win or lose, Davis has gone the distance in her last seven outings. Back to her home at bantamweight after a rough four-bout stint at 125 pounds—where she ran into four Top 10-caliber women one after the next—she can employ her effective pressure-first style without compromising herself from a weight cut. Since debuting in the UFC in 2013, “Ally-Gator” has notched but one stoppage, coming by armbar in a thrilling trilogy battle with Sarah Kaufman in 2015. The Canadian’s finish rate has fallen to an even 50% leading up to her encounter with Lithuania’s Julija Stoliarenko, and she draws this matchup against an opponent who can get shut down should her game plan not come to fruition. Davis as a favorite above -200 is not quite as juicy as drilling down to the method of victory, and decision appears the most likely option on paper given her cerebral approach to fights.

Stoliarenko has established herself as a one-weapon threat throughout her career, with all but one of her wins resulting in an armbar in the first round. The lone outlier came in a ferocious five-round bloody battle with Lisa Verzosa in 2020, when she picked up the split decision in a nail-biter that required a cleaning crew after its conclusion. When she cannot snare the armbar, Stoliarenko finds herself fishing for it with low-percentage setups, all the while giving up control time and losing rounds as a result. Davis is not the kind of veteran who will fall prey to an early armbar, and she unquestionably drilled this very move time and time again while training for this fight. The Canadian will not be afraid of going to the ground and likely will be mindful of her hand placement as she cruises to a clear-cut verdict over a gradually fatiguing Stoliarenko.

Jailton Almeida Wins Inside Distance (-140)

Almeida impressed mightily on his appearance during the 2021 season of Dana White's Contender Series, outgrappling unbeaten standout Nasrudin Nasrudinov before locking in a submission prior to the midpoint of the fight. The contract-winner makes his debut against fellow countryman Danilo Marques, who is part of an increasingly rare list of names not signed from one of the popular feeder leagues. “Malhadinho” may have heavy hands on the feet, but once the fight hits the canvas, he will likely be in the driver’s seat. Almeida appears to have the greater upside as a younger fighter with momentum on his side, and his 100% finish rate should remain intact against a fighter coming off of a knockout loss.

With Marques being a Demian Maia disciple, he might not fear the ground game of his younger opponent, but he will need to walk a fine line between caution and overconfidence when this fight inevitably hits the mat. Having his last adversary Kennedy Nzechukwu in all sorts of trouble before running out of steam, it might serve as two bulls crashing together with immediate fireworks in some fashion. A fair line to couple in a parlay is the under of 2.5 rounds at -205, and it is in a decent enough range to even pursue on its own based on the styles of both men. It is unclear how Almeida will fare if he cannot secure a finish in under seven minutes, but seeing Marques fade so recently in a bout gives the stoppage play for the newcomer some serious potential.

Malcolm Gordon (+230)

Based on his level of competition leading up to his Octagon debut and after a trio of fight cancelations that left him on the shelf for over 16 months, Ukraine’s Denys Bondar should not be a huge favorite against anyone. A symptom of sketchy recordkeeping and problematic promoters in the region, Bondar’s record is somehow both overinflated and underinflated, with extra wins and losses attributed to the 29-year-old. An opportunist grappler who can snatch a submission out of nowhere, the 100% finish rate for Bondar includes stoppages over the dangerous 0-2 Sergey Kupin, the threatening 2-1-1 Ghenadie Gitlan and the fearsome 3-3 Oleg Plotnik in recent memory. Some rise to the occasion when setting foot in the world-famous Octagon after crushing subpar competition—Taila Santos comes to mind—but others struggle. The question marks that loom over how Bondar performs in the face of an adrenaline dump or against someone who does not wilt after the first exchange provide value for Gordon as the sizable underdog.

While Gordon comes in with a sub-.500 record, his 2021 victory over Francisco Figueiredo may have just been an indication that the two men to beat him—Amir Albazi and Su Mudaerji—are just that good. An equal-opportunity threat, Gordon would likely prefer to take the fight to the mat where he can set something up on the ground. A question mark remains as to the stability of his chin, as flyweights should not find their jaws tested as seriously as the heavier divisions. Against the man known as “Psycho,” Gordon is in luck, as Bondar is serviceable on the feet but not a striking threat the likes of Mudaerji. The strength of schedule is where the Canadian will hold the edge, with experience on a major stage; Bondar’s most significant match is among the Wu Lin Feng ranks in 2016. As long as he does not fall victim to a trap set by Bondar, “Malcolm X” can frustrate his opponent on the mat, as the organizational newcomer may be willing to go there and sacrifice time in search of submission setups from his back.