Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 222 ‘Blaydes vs. Pavlovich’

Back within the confines of the UFC Apex, the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday tosses out a show that features a dozen fights and only two combatants ranked in the division in which they are competing. While the stakes are not as high as usual, there are still a handful of dynamite matchups across the billing. In this UFC Fight Night 222 edition of Prime Picks, we dive into the most prolific takedown artist in heavyweight history, place our trust in durable fighters going to decisions, lob a pitch for a returning gladiator and hold one up for the old guys.

Curtis Blaydes (-160)

In November 2018, one of a number of stellar performances for the kickboxer-turned-MMA fighter Alistair Overeem played out in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night 141 in China. There, “The Demolition Man” met an overmatched, green, 12-0 Russian named Sergei Pavlovich, and he proceeded to utilize his vastly underrated wrestling and battered the younger man. While Overeem may be known for his knees and devastating power, his wrestling has always been a potential safety valve should his chin get checked. Since then, Pavlovich has not lost, laying waste to five opponents, all in the first round. Unfortunately for Pavlovich, none of them have even remotely tested his wrestling, so the questions still loom over how well he can stop a takedown from a top-flight practitioner. Enter the favored Blaydes.

The proud owner of the UFC’s heavyweight takedown record by a long way, Blaydes’ takedowns are constant and seemingly never-ending. On not one but two occasions, “Razor” has performed at least 10 on a single opponent. All the while, Blaydes imposes his will, pounding on grounded fighters and shredding them with his vicious elbows that inspired his nickname. More importantly, Blaydes generally maintains the cardio to keep this relentless grappling approach going, at least until the other man is more tired than him. While Alexander Volkov showed a little steam after getting dragged to the mat 14 times, he did not have anywhere near the horsepower to make Blaydes pay for earlier work. Other than the destructive, intercepting power of Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, Blaydes has not been so much as slowed down.

On the feet, Pavlovich holds quite an advantage on paper. Blaydes’ hands are slept on because of how much he wants to take the fight down, but they tend to come in the form of single powerful blows. Pavlovich is a slick, quick striker who strings together combinations and can land at unexpected angles. He could treat the four extra inches he holds in his arms like a foot, especially if Blaydes decides to ply his trade upright for a time. Pavlovich possesses equalizing power, and this play could very well explode in the first five minutes if he has any say over the matter. If one has an inclination that the Russian shuts things down and lands the punch that gets respect or worse, Pavlovich by TKO/KO is a fair +175. Otherwise, Blaydes can close the distance with his dangerous swings and put the fight on the floor and off the gunnery range. From there, it is his world, and he can decide if he puts the fight away or stacks up minutes of control time in one swath.

DOUBLE PLAY (-108)

Bobby Green-Jared Gordon Goes to Decision (-225)
Karol Rosa-Norma Dumont Goes to Decision (-300)

In the “Featured Fight of the Night” slot, a pair of lightweights in dire need of a decisive win will toe the line. Unfortunately for both, that kind of victory is rare in their cases, other than a 30-27 verdict. Back in 2021, Green sparked Al Iaquinta for his first knockout since 2013. Meanwhile, Gordon has not gotten things done inside the distance since the middle of 2017 in his organizational debut against a smaller Michel Quinones. As the competition has improved, the durability of their respective opponents has increased, as well. This looks to be a contest that will play out almost exclusively on the feet, and although they may trade, the likelihood of one hurting and putting the other away is relatively low. This line coupled with the one to follow at about even money should be worth it, compared to some of the other tougher plays on the billing.

The other half of the two-piece decision parlay comes in a rare women’s featherweight encounter, one that might have championship stakes if Amanda Nunes ever decides to move back to 145 pounds. Luckily for this pick—one that at -300 is too high to pursue on its own—it has practically never gone wrong in the UFC tenures of either Rosa or Dumont. The Parana Vale Tudo product has heard the final bell in all six of her UFC endeavors, while Dumont has seen five of six outings go the distance. It has been several years since either woman procured a stoppage on the decidedly lower stage against lesser opposition. The actual victor of this bout is immaterial in this selection, just that they continue their tradition of grinding fights out in the Octagon.

Ricky Glenn (-155)

One needs to go back nearly two years to find the last time either Glenn and Christos Giagos posted a win. For the former, a 2021 draw with Grant Dawson and torn groin in early 2022 led to “The Gladiator” being out of action for the remaining stretch. For the latter, Giagos fell victim to a rare toilet-based accident in which he sliced up one of the tendons in his fingers. While not as salacious as some can imagine—he was reaching to clean his grill and a piece of broken porcelain lay beneath it, unbeknownst to him—he required surgery. Both men are back on the up-and-up, and based on their last performances, Glenn appears to still have more to offer. Team Alpha Male’s Glenn struggled early against Dawson his last time out and nearly claimed a late stoppage, while “The Spartan” has been put away early in each of his last two appearances. Glenn as a moderate favorite still makes sense while providing enough value for cautious bettors.

At his best, Glenn is a relatively active southpaw with decent pop on his strikes and enough defense to keep himself out of danger no matter where the fight takes them. A well-rounded competitor, Dawson had his back and threatened with submissions but did not land one, while Kevin Aguilar dropped him in Round 3 and could not put him away. Meanwhile, Giagos would like to claim top position and rain down shots, but he can find himself waiting to his detriment at times. As long as Glenn can stave off the attempts and “advertise the price of admission,” to quote analyst Laura Sanko, he can win this one going away. If Giagos can get him down, he will need to do so for three full rounds or risk his energy resources depleting and running out of steam midway through the second frame.

Rani Yahya (+425)

It seems to only be a matter of time until the sharp decline of Yahya hits and disappoints World Extreme Cagefighting faithful everywhere. Until then, Yahya has won two fights in a row, although he has been inactive for the good part of 18 months. Now at the tender age of 38, the bottom may fall out sooner than later, but at least Yahya presents the type of style that largely avoids damage and does not force him to take excess punishment. The gas tank has faded a bit as his career runs on, but Yahya is still the kind of bantamweight who can play spoiler and spring the biggest upset of the night. If one wishes to throw a dart on the card with huge plus odds, check out Yahya landing the submission at +825—something he has done in four of his last five wins and exactly 75% of his victories.

If Yahya performs a submission, it would be the first time anyone has done so on Montel Jackson. The tall, lanky bantamweight worked his way to the promotion from the second season of Dana White’s Contender Series and has brought a surprising amount of power with him. His striking is unorthodox in that he does not generally throw overwhelming volume, instead picking his shots and making foes pay when they make a bad step. “Quik” is one knockdown shy of the bantamweight record of 10, held by Marlon Vera and Petr Yan, and Yahya’s own striking is still extremely rudimentary despite how long he has competed in the sport. Yahya will undoubtedly pursue the takedown, early and often, taking the eight-inch reach disadvantage out of the equation. Unless he gets caught early, Yahya can bank a couple rounds with control time and submission attempts and possibly can even catch a frustrated Jackson in a transition to land the unexpected sub.