Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 231 ‘Almeida vs. Lewis’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship takes a trip to Sao Paulo for the first time in nearly four years. The promotion had a plan with this fight card, even with the late replacements, to match 13 Brazilians against foreign opponents–and with it, Brazil could win out across the board. Four competitors see betting lines at -500 or above, and this edition of Prime Picks focuses on one while expecting a clean sweep for three other home-country selections.

Jailton Almeida Wins by Submission (-125)

Derrick Lewis winning by knockout is anywhere from +400 to +450, so keep that in the back pocket. At the tender age of 38, Lewis would like nothing more than to prove Brazilian jiu-jitsu is not real by throwing grapplers off of him as if they were children. When they step on the scales on Friday, Lewis will likely weigh at least 30 pounds heavier than Almeida, and he is the kind of fighter who can use it to his advantage. This short-notice pairing may be Lewis’ worst type of fight, given that Almeida could take “The Black Beast” for a ride and never let up. Given that the 32-year-old from Salvador, Bahia, Brazil, is around a -500 favorite, to get even a decent return, the prop of the specific type of stoppage may be the best path for savvy bettors.

In five UFC outings, “Malhadinho” has absorbed exactly two significant strikes while racking up five stoppages. This means that three of his foes have not landed a single sig strike on him, as he has ragdolled them with at least one takedown per opponent. While heavyweights tend only to need one big strike to end a fight—look no further than the UFC’s all-time knockout leader Lewis—Almeida sometimes only needs one takedown to prevail thus far. Even if wins over Danilo Marques or Anton Turkalj may not be individually thrilling, his blanking of Jairzinho Rozenstruik sent a message to the division.

Lewis will need to be at his preventative best, preparing for a shot that will almost certainly come from his unwieldy adversary. Chin-checking Curtis Blaydes, the man originally tapped for this headliner spot, will forever be a major point on his highlight reel, and it came courtesy of an unreal uppercut when Blaydes ducked down for a shot. A big right hand completely blew the doors off a young Almeida, who still fights with his hands down more frequently than recommended. The Houstonian remains vulnerable to talented wrestlers who can sling him to the floor, using technique rather than attempting to wage a strength vs. strength battle. It may not be the first takedown that will deflate Lewis, but as two, three or even four materialize, he can discourage the knockout king and threaten with submissions all the while. Unless Lewis pulls another rabbit out of his hare farm—and a flier on that +400 or so line is never unconscionable on him—it should be Almeida passing a huge test with flying colors.

Rodrigo Nascimento (-180)

The UFC decided on purpose to rematch Nascimento and Don'Tale Mayes three years after it took place, in what was a decisive and non-controversial victory for the man named “Yogi Bear.” For undefined reasons, the league also chose to put this heavyweight smash-‘em-up derby high up on the main card. Back at UFC on ESPN 8, the Brazilian did decent work on the feet until dragging Mayes to the mat, and from there, it was only a matter of time until Nascimento landed a choke. A mere four fights for Nascimento and five for Mayes removed from that bout, they meet again, and little seems to show that it will play out differently. Nascimento, a pure finisher who recently struggled to solve the puzzles of Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi, showed that he at least has the gas tank should he not get the finish in eight minutes or less. Now, both in their athletic primes, it would not be surprising if the second meeting went the same, which is why a pick for Nascimento at under -200 is magnificent.

Mayes surprised many by putting down Andrei Arlovski in June, but a few months prior, Augusto Sakai completely shut him down with a lot of clinching, huffing and puffing. As he has shown in the last few years, his takedown defense remains a liability, and Nascimento will almost certainly look to exploit it sooner rather than later. If looking to make the most of a bet on the full-framed Brazilian, betting on him getting the finish comes in at a decent line of +135. Drilling down a little further, the Nascimento winning by submission is +225, which could be worth the risk given Mayes’ deficiencies on the canvas.

Rodolfo Vieira (-115)

There may be no outright underdogs on this edition of Prime Picks, but this matchup is about as close as it gets, as Vieira sees lines ranging from -102 to -115 at the time. On the other side of pick ‘em, Armen Petrosyan can be narrowly favored higher, for example, with one book having Petrosyan at -120 while Vieira is -106. Grab Vieira wins inside the distance in the neighborhood of +135 to get to outright plus money. This stylistic matchup is about as stark as it can get on paper, but of the two, Vieira has a better chance on the feet than Petrosyan does on his back. A bet on the Brazilian is not a waste at even money against a fighter susceptible to controlling grapplers.

The only two people to escape without serious harm against Vieira did so in ways Petrosyan has not shown the capability to emulate. Chris Curtis completely nullified all 20 attempts from “The Black Belt Hunter” to take things horizontally, while Anthony Hernandez allowed Vieira to blow his gas tank embarrassingly and hit a beauty of a guillotine choke. The multiple-time Mundials and ADCC champ will use his striking, which can sometimes consist of looping shots that leave him wide open for counters, to close the distance. From there, it is only a matter of time until he either drives through the hips with a double-leg entry or uses the clinch to hit a trip. The Armenian, by way of Russia, will have to rely on a sprawl-and-brawl approach if he hopes to be the third to defeat the vaunted grappler, and he has to imagine that the floor is lava. It will be up to Petrosyan to stay on the outside or force Vieira to expend his energy on low-percentage takedown attempts to get his hand raised.

Denise Gomes (-125)

As terrific of a story the two UFC stints are for Angela Hill, at 38 years of age, it is hard to justify a pick for her against someone 15 years her junior. Always in the fight, Hill has brought the same effective approach for years. When she loses, typically, it is due to her less-than-stellar defensive wrestling, which can take her out of her element, having to fight off the oncoming takedown. Beating Hill is a large feather in one’s cap, as it generally marks whether one is worthy of top-15 consideration. Gomes can pass that test by using her power mixed in with the threat of grappling, even if the elder stateswoman may have the speed advantage.

The recent loss for Gomes against Konklak Suphisara—known better by her Thai name of “Loma Lookboonmee”—looms large as a way to deflate the power-punching Brazilian. The Thai took Gomes out of her element with surprisingly effective takedown entries, set up by her masterful clinch game. Hill is capable of grounding opponents, but she has only hit multiple takedowns once in her UFC tenure, in a fight she lost to Tecia Torres. It will be up to Gomes to take it to Hill and not let Hill batter her lead leg with dozens of kicks while putting her hands together in still-impressive volume. The organization will likely highlight a statistic on the broadcast claiming fighters 15 years their foe’s junior win a vast majority of their bouts, perhaps in the neighborhood of 65%. In a strict odds analysis, that implied win percentage, all else being equal, would mean that Gomes should be around a -190 favorite. On that alone, there is value on Gomes as a very slight betting favorite.