Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 234 ‘Ankalaev vs. Walker 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is back. Fight fans in full withdrawal mode will soon get their high-stakes combat entertainment fix as the company plunks down in the UFC Apex to start 2024. What comes next is a rare event with the main and co-mains bearing rematches, and most of the betting lines are fairly understandable. Join the UFC Fight Night 234 edition of Prime Picks as we dip our toes in the water for one of those two marquee matches, bring in mandatory censors for one beloved veteran and toss out one final rose for a legendary heavyweight.

Magomed Ankalaev-Johnny Walker Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-165)

If this headlining light heavyweight rematch between Ankalaev and Walker goes beyond 2:30 of Round 2, it is likely because of the former and not the latter. The grappling-savvy Dagestan native has the power to take the fight anywhere he wants, and based on their previous encounter in October, he can do so against Walker. Ankalaev only put Walker on his back once, but it came in his first attempt when he basically tackled the high-flying Brazilian to the mat. Walker tried to get back up, ate an illegal knee in the process and met a doctor who should not be overseeing any combat sport. The two only engaged for 3:13, but based on that performance and Ankalaev’s calm approach to his frenetic foe, this is the type of matchup that will last a little while.

Ankalaev came into the promotion lauded as a knockout artist, and it did not hurt when he rattled off four of his first five UFC wins via strikes. Despite that, his power may be the type that falls off a cliff when reaching the sport’s elite, as is customary for most fighters with high finish rates who slow down when it is not so easy to dust their opponent. It could be argued that Anthony Smith only folded against Ankalaev due to the injury to his leg or ankle, and the punches from the Russian were simply the icing on the cake. Ankalaev’s deliberate, measured pace, especially when he takes top position, is more methodical than incredibly dangerous. He may reach Walker on the feet if the Brazilian gets reckless, but the value is still on this ticking clock getting beyond the midpoint of the second round.

If Ankalaev can ground Walker three times, he would set the record for takedowns against the Brazilian in the Octagon. Nikita Krylov did this in 2020, and he was able to rack up some control time, as well, when he changed up his game plan of an all gas, no brakes attack. It will be on Walker to pull off the upset (+400) by hitting Ankalaev hard but not with a type of strike that will leave him vulnerable to getting taken down. The Russian is wholly capable of grabbing the 6-foot-6 gunslinger mid-air and chucking him down to the mat, so a flying knee might be a dangerous proposal; Walker tried to pull a Scott Smith-Pete Sell when taking a ruthless body shot, but that led to his getting dumped to the ground. It will be up to Ankalaev to keep this fight going for the time required to hit this bet by relying instead on controlling wrestling rather than hammering Walker with head kicks.

Jim Miller (-145)

Why this one? It’s Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller!

If that is not enough reason to bet on the moderately favored Miller, there are actual non-sentimental reasons behind the expectation of his victory. This type of bout is tailor-made for the grizzled vet, even with him now in his 40s. “A-10” has been a lightning-quick finisher when facing a foe who suffers a lapse in judgment, whether from one big punch or a speedy submission out of nowhere. At his advanced age, Miller has found the stunning power he never seemed to display before, although his cardio is not what it once was. He fights Gabriel Benitez, a UFC vet of nearly 10 years, who presents a record just above .500 while being fully susceptible to getting blitzed. Blitzing is exactly what Miller does now, and check out Miller Wins Inside Distance at +150, as well.

The UFC matched Miller well, knowing that he fully intends to compete at UFC 300 in April and only has a few more fights left in the tank. Instead of trying to build names off of him or throwing him to the wolves to watch his spectacular decline in 8K video, the organization matches him against foes he has a chance to beat. As a result, he has gone 7-4 since getting easily tapped by future champ Charles Oliveira, all while beating respectable, aging names like Clay Guida and Donald Cerrone, along with upstarts like Roosevelt Roberts and Erick Gonzalez. Benitez will be a willing adversary and throw hard right out of the gate, so Miller cannot get sloppy. If one needs a quick and dirty two-piece parlay, look no further than pairing your expected winner with this fight lasting under 2.5 rounds (-200).

Phil Hawes-Brunno Ferreira Does Not Start Round 2 (-155)

Multiply the violence potential from the previously discussed Miller-Benitez tilt by a fair amount and add 30-plus pounds of muscle to either man. What should come together is one heck of a violent but short fight. The UFC billed this as a “knockout or bust” match, and based on their past histories, it should not disappoint. There is the slight possibility that they come out cautious, respecting the power of one another a little too much, which could blow this line up. Ferreira seems to know only one speed, and Hawes is fearless even when his mentality writes checks his durability cannot cash. While this very well may end with one middleweight deprived of his consciousness, the option for an early club-and-sub is entirely possible when these muscle men blonk one another on the head wildly.

The relative veteran Hawes has competed beyond Round 1 on seven occasions throughout his 17-fight career, while Ferreira has heard the round-ending bell just twice as a pro after 11 bouts. While the latter’s debut against Gregory Rodrigues ramped up his hype meter, leaving his chin for the taking of Nursultan Ruziboev crashed that down to Earth. Hawes, too, has had wild moments of success in the Octagon, opposite crushing defeats, but his last three defeats coming by strikes in the opening frame spells trouble for the man called “No Hype.” At least as it pertains to this betting option, the winner is not nearly as important as the damage inflicted in the first five minutes or less.

Andrei Arlovski (+500)

Turning 45 in a month, the sun might be getting really low for the former heavyweight kingpin. Fight fans have been suggesting “The Pit Bull” was done nearly a decade ago, and his five-fight losing streak did not help, even if it came against top-notch opposition like Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou. A few years ago, lumbering adversaries like Don'Tale Mayes and Marcos Rogerio de Lima would have been prime beguilement subjects as Arlovski boxed his way to a lackluster decision. The sambo skills are completely gone, durability perpetually on the rocks and he seemingly has no power in his hands. Arlovski has nevertheless been able to cruise for the past few years by doing just enough to get by. Against the heavily favored but relatively untested Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Arlovski might be able to pull off one more win and spring the upset. However, it will likely be by decision, which could further be drilled down to about +600 as a flier.

A former pitcher, Cortes-Acosta punches much like he pitched, throwing fastballs right down the middle early and often. He puts a fair amount of heat on them, but they have not panned out on the major stage as lights-out material. His lone stoppage in three victories came over the skidding Lukasz Brzeski—a man Sherdog’s Shillan and Duffy Show often refers to as a “bad Tinder date” based on his shredded physique on his Fight Finder profile photo versus his in-cage appearance and performances. Arlovski is always hittable but flourishes in a low-power, high-volume striking battles. It might not be pretty, but the potential for Arlovski to sneak out one last squeaker of a split decision may be worth the +500 odds, given how Cortes-Acosta has presented himself in the UFC thus far.