Prime Picks: UFC on ABC 5 ‘Emmett vs. Topuria’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday strolls back down to Jacksonville, Florida, with a show bolstered for the live crowd and the ABC network where it will air. On this jam-packed card, 14 fights—with nine seeing odds closer than -200—will play out, and some very live underdogs may surprise. Join the UFC on ABC 5 edition of Prime Picks as we showcase arguably the most live of those dogs on the board, put faith behind a heavyweight knockout artist and point out an interesting type of line that some bettors may not know about.

Josh Emmett (+275)

Ilia Topuria has passed every test in front of him to reach this marquee matchup with a former interim title challenger. On most occasions, he has done so with aplomb, as he submitted a dangerous grappler in Bryce Mitchell and even toyed around with Ryan Hall’s vaunted guard before shutting his lights out. The well-rounded nature of the German-born, Georgian-raised Spain resident has made him one to watch as he blazed through his opposition. Against Emmett, he finds himself as the biggest betting favorite on the whole card, and this could be a real trap fight for him. Emmett presents problems on the feet, celebrates a durable chin and wields submission chops that are generally up to par. At significant plus odds, the power-punching Emmett has a real shot at victory, and he should at least be worth a flier.

One of three judges gave the opening round between Emmett and Yair Rodriguez to the Team Alpha Male rep, as did many other observers. While the wheels fell off when Rodriguez started lighting him up on the feet with his kicks and Emmett fell into a trap while putting the Mexican fighter on his back, he was not simply a steppingstone. Although the official tally registers that no knockdowns were scored in that match, Emmett had “El Pantera” in all sorts of trouble in Round 1. With a high rate of activity, nearly unflappable chin and strong takedown defense, Emmett is an imminent threat until he is either put down or the final bell rings.

Topuria has yet to involve himself in a true knock-down, drag-out affair that lasted more than six minutes in the Octagon, and Jai Herbert did ring his bell in early 2022. It did involve a brief move up to lightweight for “El Matador,” but Emmett may be one of the more ferocious one-shot strikers at 145 pounds, even though he has not procured a knockout since 2019. The jury is still out on whether Topuria has the cardio to go deep into the fight when he is not firmly in the driver’s seat. In his lone bout that went to a decision, takedowns and top control allowed him to shut down Youssef Zalal, but it remains to be seen how he reacts when he collides with someone who can push him to the limit. Emmett has all the tools and talent—provided he has not completely fallen off a cliff from a competitive perspective at his advanced age—to not only keep Topuria honest but potentially overcome him.

Justin Tafa Wins by KO/TKO (-125)

The oft-discussed “heavyweight over” has been growing in prominence of late, meaning that savvy bettors are expecting heavyweights will not end in speedy stoppages. There is some truth to the notion, as the expectation is that the wide majority of big-men brawls end fairly quickly and violently. At one time, the UFC finish rate for the heavyweight division sat at the highest in the promotion, with roughly two-thirds of the fights not hearing the final bell. This year, with a sample size of just 17 bouts so far, less than 50%—47% to be more precise—have not involved the judges. In this unranked heavyweight slobberknocker, however, that does not appear to be an issue. Knockout rates of 100% and 92% mean that someone will end his night face down, and the smaller but taller Austen Lane may see his chin checked early and often until it cannot hold up.

Lane has been on quite a run since a deflating 2020 loss to Vernon Lewis, and even though all three of his past losses have come by knockout, his beard has held together against some sluggers. Rattling off six finishes across his six wins in the last three years, Lane even showed off his grappling against an outmatched 5-9 Brad Taylor along the way. While hardly a world beater himself, Tafa has reminded fans that he can still bang. In 66 seconds, he separated Parker Porter from his senses, and Porter is far from the bottom on the heavyweight totem pole. Lane, whose athleticism is offset by his desire to stand in the pocket and trade—occasionally to his detriment—may find that the screaming fans in the Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena are too loud to ignore and could try to put on a show. This is where the Aussie known as “Bad Man” can feast, as he has shown a greater resilience against power punchers than his adversary.

Brendan Allen Wins Inside Distance (-115)

The ABC-aired main card will open with a middleweight incursion that seems destined for a big finish. The stoppage rates of Allen at 81% and Bruno Silva at 87% are impressive but not infallible. The record of “Blindado” shows that the lion’s share of his defeats has come due to a deficit in his ground game, but there has only been one man in over six years to exploit it: Gerald Meerschaert. “GM3” did not need to pull a rabbit out of the hat, instead beating Silva in a pillar-to-post performance that ended with a tapout. Allen has all of those abilities and seemingly more pop on his shots, but his recklessness can get the better of him. With recent submissions of tough outs Sam Alvey and Krzysztof Jotko, not to mention the shocking choke of Andre Muniz, it seems reasonable that Allen can wear out a tiring Silva and put him away, whether by pounding him out or snatching up his neck.

A small number of books allow for a “CYA” measure, some calling it the “double chance” regarding method of victory. If one wishes to hit the safety valve on this explosive middleweight affair, a line does exist at solid -165 of the following: either Allen wins by submission or Silva wins by TKO/KO. This would cover the two-outcome belief many have about this pairing. If sticking to the original plan, the expectation that Allen wins the fight inside the distance instead of hitting that specific submission only lies with a “club and sub”-type of situation that, however unlikely, does not surrender much value compared to his outright landing a submission.

Tabatha Ricci (-130)

In the strawweight division, two women best known for their grappling acumen meet in a style-on-style clash. As often is the case, when this type of contest occurs, it could either end in the nullification of their best weapons or an exhibition of one’s superiority in skill over the other. In the former, this could result in a sloppy kickboxing match, and the latter is akin to when Gunnar Nelson tried and failed to ply his trade against Demian Maia. It is unquestionable that Gillian Robertson has a more well-documented submission savvy in the Octagon, as she still leads her previous division of 125 pounds with the most subs. Ricci, however, has shown to be a smart, tactical practitioner who does not make many mistakes. If she does not feel like showing off her developing striking arsenal, it will behoove Ricci to punch through Robertson’s porous takedown defense and toss aside any setups from the Canadian to outwork her.

Even with Robertson’s high number of submission victories in the UFC to date, she can be stifled by someone who can hang with her on the mat. If thrown down to the canvas, she can offer up low-percentage attempts off her back rather than looking to return to her feet. A patient Ricci can shut down any of those efforts and methodically break down Robertson with a heavy top game. Although Robertson can pull guard at times or even put herself in disadvantageous positions in hopes of pulling something off, Ricci can fight tactically and not for instance leave her arm placed flat on the floor to fall into an armbar. There could be stalemates and slowdowns as Ricci employs her strategy of repeated takedowns and enough activity to stave off referee standups. On the other hand, their horizontal activity could result in many exciting scrambles, exchanges and near-miss maneuvers. Unless she falls into a bad spot and suffers her first career submission loss—the comeback on Robertson by submission is around +350—Ricci as a slight favorite is worth a shot.