Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 41 ‘Vera vs. Cruz’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday has leftovers on the menu. Taking to San Diego with a bundle of fights jammed on this card after they fell through at previous events and more than one Dana White’s Contender Series signee debuting despite a failed drug test, this mishmash show still provides a wealth of options for savvy bettors. The UFC on ESPN 41 edition of Prime Picks relies on a fair share of past but still-relevant analysis while also picking the rightful favorite in the headliner and a scrappy veteran coming in at wide plus odds who can cash as a hefty underdog.

Marlon Vera (-185)

While much of the card seems to be thrown together slap-dash and the co-headliner is a head-scratcher with ranked competitors and a handful of more established names further down the lineup, this main event is something to behold. Many coin this bantamweight battle between Vera and Dominick Cruz a potential “passing of the torch” moment, and rightfully so. “Chito” is just now entering his athletic prime at 29 years of age, and he has looked better than ever since a setback to all-time great Jose Aldo. While Vera also celebrates a few late stoppages over the likes of Brad Pickett and Andre Ewell in the Octagon to date, his recent three-victory run has shown he can keep his power and speed even in the late stages of the fight against top competitors. If Vera can be acquired as a favorite anywhere below -200, he is certainly worth a play.

Turning 37 in less than a month, Cruz is undoubtedly reaching the twilight of his career. Despite this reality, he is not going quietly into the good night, with solid wins over Casey Kenney and Pedro Munhoz showing he is not finished yet and has one more run in him. The footwork that made him famous and the timing that made him a champion has diminished to a degree with age and repeated knee injuries, but it is still very much there. Cruz had to power through a tough first round against Munhoz—although the Brazilian can start out hot and fade—and he figured out “The Young Punisher” as he has done to so many others over the years. Against Vera, Cruz faces a similar type of adversary to Munhoz, just better in every way. “Chito” is faster, hits harder and can push a pace longer, which puts Cruz at a significant disadvantage. It is unlikely that Cruz manages to become the first person to put Vera away, so if the desire to select “The Dominator” is in play, go with him winning a decision to maximize value at about +275.

The five-rounder Vera engaged in with Rob Font in April proved to be arguably the most important to date for the Ecuadorian, as he not only reached the championship rounds for the first time in his career but survived adversity in them. Knowing he was down on the scorecards, the overweight Font (138.5 pounds) gave it everything he had in Round 5, marching Vera down and outslugging the accurate and consistent Colin Oyama protege for the final stretch. Even though he lost the round, Vera proved he could hang with the elite of the division and stave off the desperate attacks of a slick striker. If Vera does sport one glaring weakness, it is in his defensive wrestling, and this is an area that a cerebral competitor like Cruz could exploit. While Vera has the ability to get up quickly and not give up control time, the grappling threat from Cruz could mute or quiet his striking. If Cruz can stifle Vera with a wrestling-first approach, he can spring the upset, but doing this for five rounds against a younger, fresher threat is a tough ask.

Ariane Lipski (-195)

A weight miss and subsequent illness for Lipski pushed this fight back a week and up a weight class, but unless she is still compromised, the 135-pound range will bestow upon her an even greater advantage— the remaining previous analysis of the fight still holds true. Some fighters can never shake the public perception of a crushing loss, and that undoubtedly goes for Priscila Cachoeira’s UFC debut against Valentina Shevchenko. Even as Cachoeira is officially one win away from a UFC record of .500, that pillar-to-post beatdown is one that may never be forgotten. Coupled with her early “Robbery of the Year” contender decision win with Ji Yeon Kim in February, Cachoeira is not coming in with a great deal of momentum behind her. Even though Lipski won her last fight and is making her first appearance of the year, her drubbing of Mandy Bohm made those remember why she is she nicknamed “Queen of Violence.” Cachoeira will meet Lipski in the middle and throw down, and this will work to the disadvantage of “Zombie Girl.”

In the ranks of KSW, Lipski possessed fight-changing power and the ability to snare a submission when her adversary was hurt. Her sheer strength could turn the tide in her favor, or she could simply bend back a knee at a frightening angle to make Luana Carolina cry uncle. With her confidence appearing to be back and measuring up about the same size as Cachoeira, she will not be pushed around by a larger woman as others have. For Cachoeira to get it done, she will need to land with higher volume, beating her opponent to the punch and even slugging it out when she puts Lipski on her back foot. Two flyweight purveyors of violence—those who do not have to cut weight to 125 pounds and instead can come in healthier at 135—will clash, and unless Lipski gets stung in the early going and becomes gun-shy, she can take it to Cachoeira and get the job done.

Gerald Meerschaert Wins by Submission (+500)

For the lion’s share of his UFC run, Meerschaert has closed as the betting underdog. Time and again, “GM3” has defied the odds, springing upset after upset while getting the finish every single time he has won inside the Octagon. A 9-7 UFC record by itself might not inspire confidence against a power puncher like Bruno “Blindado” Silva, but Meerschaert is an opportunist of the highest order. In three of nine of his victories with the promotion, Meerschaert has not only snatched up a sub, but he has put his opponent to sleep. It puts into focus the ability for Meerschaert to snag a move out of nowhere and surprise his foe so significantly that he cannot even tap out in time. While Silva could easily walk Meerschaert down and punch his lights out, at big plus money, “GM3” pulling off one more unexpected submission is completely reasonable.

Silva is most dangerous in the first round, with 13 of his 19 finishes coming in that opening period, and Meerschaert will be unquestionably in the danger zone for this stretch. It will behoove Meerschaert to stay off the firing line by threatening the striker with takedowns or keeping him pinned against the fence to tire him out. It takes a lot of energy to power the hulking muscles of the hard-swinging Brazilian, and the composure fades fast once his gas tank depletes. With the majority of the career defeats for Silva coming by submission, pursuing an unguarded limb or neck is undoubtedly Meerschaert’s best path to victory. Even after suffering damage and taking a beating—much like Paul Craig—Meerschaert can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Silva by knockout at -150 may be the smarter money given his propensity for punching and Meerschaert’s overreliance on durability, but where there is no risk, there is no reward. “GM3” may yet have to go through a veritable meat grinder to pull it off, but the 34-year-old Roufusport rep can keep himself on the radar of the rest of the division with a sub of the talented Silva.

Cynthia Calvillo (-175)

The rescheduled scrap comes at flyweight between two ladies on tough losing streaks and a potential roster cut in sight. It was initially booked for UFC on ESPN 39, but Nina Nunes succumbed to illness and fell out on fight night. Little should have changed, so the analysis remains the same. Once a dark horse strawweight contender, Calvillo could not find her footing at 115 pounds on the scale and had a trip up a division mandated by her promotion. A win against Jessica Eye made her seem like one to watch, even if it resulted in a sluggish affair, but a trio of one-sided defeats halted any possible momentum. The UFC has given her what could be a softball in a fellow skidding former strawweight like Nunes, with the latter moving up to flyweight for the first time since 2013. With grappling firmly on Calvillo’s side, this bout has all the makings of a clear-cut wrestling clinic with threatened submissions and minutes of dominant control.

A four-fight winning streak that ended with a near-comeback against Tatiana Suarez in 2019 made Nunes an unexpected contender, but starting a family came first, resulting in a layoff of nearly two years to have a daughter. In the last three years, Nunes has competed just once, getting thoroughly outgrappled and tapped by Mackenzie Dern in April 2021. Another long layoff for unknown reasons leads to her return, but it does not play to her strengths. While Nunes might gain some power moving back up a division and Calvillo has taken a lot of damage lately, the latter has been far more active and employs just the skillset that can frustrate “The Strina.” Whether by submission or lopsided decision, Calvillo as a moderate favorite is a solid bet.