Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 54 ‘Blanchfield vs. Fiorot’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday pops its collar in the Jersey Shore for the first time in years with a show that it hopes will bring a little something for everybody. Plenty of regional competitors will give fans something to cheer for, even if some of the matchups for the locals are quite daunting. Join the UFC on ESPN 54 edition of Prime Picks as we take a slow ride in the main event, select precision over power and expect a few wild brawls before the dust settles.

Erin Blanchfield-Manon Fiorot Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-230)

It is entirely possible that from a pure skill perspective, the victor of this main event may be the best competitor at 125 pounds among all women. To settle who gets the next crack at the throne—which will be decided between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko at some undetermined date that could be September—a striker and a grappler will ply their trade in the ultimate clash of styles. Blanchfield has proved she can throw around powerhouses like Jessica Andrade and Molly McCann, while Fiorot displayed excellent hands and feet while beating names like Katlyn Cerminara and Rose Namajunas. While both possess solid finishing ability, their durability should make this encounter long.

But for a pair of debatable early losses, these two women are undefeated, with markedly similar trajectories up the ladder. The UFC lucked out with these two rising to the top echelon of the division at the same time since the title picture is crowded with an immediate trilogy between Grasso and Shevchenko. It may sting that the triumphant woman on Saturday may wait upwards of a year to claim that ticket to the championship ride, but it will lessen the logjam for the time being. Blanchfield has landed submission after submission, while Fiorot’s outboxing of Rose Namajunas stacks up against any win someone else could hold. The question will be one of defense: is Fiorot better off grappling than Blanchfield is on the feet? It may be answered early but does not mean a finish is nigh.

While the over of 3.5 rounds appears more appetizing at -150, there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to the later rounds. Neither woman has ever competed beyond the third frame as a pro. Some suggest Fiorot was fading late against a defiant Namajunas. If Blanchfield can impose her grappling for an extended time and pass through Fiorot’s resistances, a late stoppage in Round 3 might not be off the table. Just the same, if Fiorot can stuff takedowns and advertise the price of admission, to quote Laura Sanko, on paper, she has the boxing to light Blanchfield up and potentially put her away. Either outcome would be a first, but the least likely is a quick blowout. It might have momentum shifts and edge-of-your-seat exchanges, but they both can take the hits and keep plugging along. This points to an encounter that will not conclude in the early rounds.

Vicente Luque (-110)

Luque overcame a difficult matchup against Rafael dos Anjos by unexpectedly leaning on his wrestling. By putting dos Anjos on his back a whopping eight times across 25 minutes, “The Silent Assassin” had secured more takedowns in that one match than in his UFC career. Even as he mixed in his grappling, Luque found himself on even footing on the feet with the former lightweight champ. Picking his shots smartly while never letting dos Anjos hit him with clean power, Luque put forth an intelligent effort that kept him in the mix at 170 pounds. Against former middleweight slugger Joaquin Buckley, the Brazilian faces a test that he should pass much more comfortably than the wrestle-boxer dos Anjos.

Buckley possesses equalizing power, with a one-shot ability that has given him a lengthy highlight reel despite this being his 12th outing in the UFC. “New Mansa” used to have a bad habit of trying to overswing at everything, which could result in openings or him giving up rounds against more active opponents. While Buckley would hit the air, someone sharper like Nassourdine Imavov could pick him off from afar. Buckley still does load up more often than he should, and Luque can exploit that with his quick movement and high volume. Landing before and after Buckley will be paramount, as will not walking into a vicious head kick. Luque’s chin has held up against all but a slugfest with Geoff Neal, so as long as he does not get overly reckless and bite down on his mouthpiece to say, “Let’s go,” he can counter and work Buckley over on the feet. If he decides to take the fight down like the last time out, he will also have that advantage, which gives him real value at even money.

Nursulton Ruziboev-Sedriques Dumas Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-150)

The confident pick in favor of Brunno Ferreira over Ruziboev crashed into the Chatkal Mountains when the Brazilian threw out a lazy low kick and had his chin violently checked in an all-time blunder. With a short flurry of mighty fists, the Uzbekistan native was on the map. He now draws a foe in Dumas who is not afraid of hitting people. Dumas might not enjoy it when someone his size hits him back or when Ruziboev does not fold after one shot. Ruziboev exhibits a real finishing instinct, with 94% of his wins coming inside the distance, even if many came against lesser opposition. Both men see the lion’s share of their bouts ending before the midpoint of a three-rounder, so this should, as well.

If there is some apprehension about betting this prop due to Dumas’ last two encounters going to decision, his opponents of Abu Azaitar and Cody Brundage both sport knockout rates of 50%. It may be that when rising to this level of fighter, Dumas cannot get the job done inside the distance, but he has someone in front of him in Ruziboev that will throw hands or play in the ground. The fighter who calls himself “Black” does not have a smothering grappling style as much as he frantically pursues submissions or advantageous positions. Against better foes, it will put him in dire straits, but Dumas is not likely one who can shut him down should this go to the mat. This car crash of a middleweight matchup will throw red meat to fans who want to see violence, and it likely will not reach the final bell, let alone the third round.

Angel Pacheco (+300)

All of the momentum that Caolan Loughran worked for, coming up through Cage Warriors Fighting Championship with seven finishes in eight outings, went to pot in his UFC debut. Whether the brighter lights shining down on him in Paris shook him, the fabled “Octagon jitters” set in or perhaps simply that Taylor Lapilus proved too much, too soon, the “punch first, ask questions later” approach for Loughran did not work. His marauding style got him into trouble, and his offensive grappling could not take the Frenchman out of his game. Against Pacheco, he will have a much more favorable matchup, but these odds are way off.

Pacheco was signed to the promotion off of a loss on Dana White’s Contender Series—a far cry from the past days when only one victor at an event would get picked, and those like Brendan Loughnane and Chris Curtis fell by the wayside. His blood-and-guts effort against Danny Silva impressed everyone who watched it, as it served as one of the greatest Contender Series battles to date. The recoverability, heart and tenacity that the Minnesotan showed was precisely what UFC head Dana White wanted to see that night, enough so that even a valiant defeat proved sufficient to earn a contract. As evidenced by that thriller, Pacheco would like nothing more than to bang it out, and he might find himself with a willing adversary in Loughran should he ignore his best path to victory. While Loughran could grind his way to victory, Pacheco is an extremely live underdog when this is on the feet. It might not be a full-throated endorsement to pick the biggest plus-money fighter of the evening, but a flier might not be out of the realm of possibility.