Smartest Guy at the Bar: UFC 192 Edition

The shot, the takedown and the potential for an Octagon-sized hangover -- like everything else -- is bigger in Texas. The Lone Star state has been an ardent supporter of Ultimate Fighting Championship live events, and a typical trip to Houston’s Toyota Center draws 15,000-plus spectators. The UFC on Saturday returns to Space City for UFC 192, with a 205-pound title fight and the comeback of a long-shelved former champion. It will be the right venue at which to answer prizefighting’s most existential question: What is gold really worth?

HOW WE GOT HERE: Jon Jones, 28, holds the light heavyweight record for consecutive title defenses (eight), trailing only middleweight Anderson Silva (10) and welterweight Georges St. Pierre (nine) on the UFC’s all-time list. It seemed the only way Jones was going to relinquish his 205-pound championship was through his out-of-competition legal troubles stemming from a hit-and-run accident in New Mexico. His most notable challenges had come from Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson, with Gustafsson giving “Bones” the most competitive fight of his nearly four-year reign atop the division. “The Mauler” took down Jones for the first time in his career but could not sway the judges. Jones, the youngest champion in UFC history, continued his run of dominance, and Gustafsson targeted a highly anticipated rematch. Three days into 2015, Jones retained his belt yet again by silencing rival Cormier across five rounds. Anthony Johnson punched out Gustafsson in 135 seconds three weeks later, spoiling the Swede’s homecoming in front of 30,000 fans -- the second largest UFC crowd ever. In addition, more than three million American television viewers watched on Fox as Gustafsson suddenly evaporated as the No. 1 contender at 205 pounds, the victory earning Johnson a Memorial Day weekend clash with Jones. However, the UFC stripped Jones of the gold over his run-in with the law, and instead, Johnson vied for the vacant light heavyweight crown against Cormier, who had been plucked out of a scheduled bout against Ryan Bader. Cormier forced Johnson to tap to a third-round rear-naked choke, and Bader took the opportunity to jaw, sans microphone, with “DC” in a back-and-forth exchange at the post-fight press conference. It seemed like perfect fodder for Cormier’s first title defense -- except Gustafsson, who has not fought since Johnson knocked him out, was called upon instead.

Related » UFC 192 Full Preview

B-SIDE BELT FOR A-PLUS REMATCH: The problem with Cormier or Gustafsson holding the UFC’s 205-pound title is the “W” Jones has against them in the record books. The belief that “to be the man, you have to beat the man” haunts this main event, and that’s not all. If the UFC wanted to call attention to the light heavyweight contender vacuum in Jones’ absence, booking a title challenger coming off the most demoralizing loss of his career -- a loss so devastating Gustafsson admitted he contemplated retirement -- against the man most recently vanquished by Jones is a good way to do it. Cormier-Gustafsson is viewed like an interim title fight, even though the belt was properly established in Jones’ stead. Booking Gustafsson in a title fight following such a high-profile setback has one obvious explanation: The bout exists to set up the winner in a big-money championship rematch with Jones upon his return. Cormier-Gustafsson is an inevitable top-shelf fight, whether Jones is active or not. Who are they to deny their current positions just because “Bones” exiled himself from the title picture? Gustafsson was one half of the best light heavyweight championship fight in UFC history opposite Jones, and Cormier made for his biggest pay-per-view buy rate. However, the Cormier-Gustafsson fight has no momentum. The UFC wants to maintain the division’s marquee status, minus Jones, and this represents its strongest play. Is it worth skipping contenders with recent wins for guys coming off losses if it sets up better money scenarios? At what point does the championship lose credibility? Is Muhammed Lawal correct when he offers up the idea that MMA is entertainment because wins and losses don’t matter the way they do in other sports? Almost on cue, Jones on Sept. 29 pled guilty to hit-and-run charges and avoided jail time, making his return inevitable. He seems likely to challenge the winner of the UFC 192 main event, which casts a significant shadow over the Cormier-Gustafsson title fight. UFC 192 represents a chance for Jones’ former B-sides to secure an A-side role. Cormier-Gustafsson is about a potential opportunity to defend the light heavyweight belt against the former champion who never lost. At worst, neither Cormier nor Gustafsson will drum up major interest for a sequel with Jones that will happen anyway; and at best, the winner’s performance sets the stage for a successful Jones rematch and places the UFC’s marquee light heavyweight division back on track.

PAYCHECKS AIN’T EASY: Cormier called Bader “an easy paycheck” at the post-fight press conference for UFC 187. Bader now has a chance to shrug off the stigma but not against Cormier. Instead, he welcomes Rashad Evans back from a 22-month layoff. Bader’s current four-fight winning streak made him the logical choice for Cormier’s first title defense, and their public run-in only bolstered the idea. However, it seems as though the UFC holds Bader’s stunning submission loss to Tito Ortiz four years ago against him when discussing serious and marketable title challengers. The UFC has spent nearly seven years promoting “The Ultimate Fighter 8” winner but, despite the long-term investment, still demands that the 32-year-old deliver more than a four-fight run to earn a crack at the gold. The UFC is sending a dangerous message by passing up Bader for a title shot for which he seems most qualified: Fighters have no say in their promotional futures or championship bids, even if they follow the most important part of their job descriptions and win fights. The fact that Jones will not serve jail time will likely shelve Bader’s hopes longer, even if he emerges with a signature victory against Evans. The real test for Bader revolves around whether or not he can keep swimming while the UFC seemingly waits for him to tire and drown before reaching the shore as a No. 1 contender. Evans, 36, hopes to pick up where he left off some two years ago. A knee injury left the former champion contemplating retirement rather than the next move on his final title run. “Suga” has been in the UFC for a decade, and few draws like him are left. He is a plug-and-play 205-pound contender, and beating Bader would give him a three-fight winning streak while reminding everyone in the division that he’s also no easy paycheck.

SAY WHAT: Los Angeles-based welterweight Alan Jouban, who also works as a male model, landed a sponsorship deal with fashion impresario Versace. It is probably the most unique deal in MMA and also a testament to how fighters can thrive financially in the UFC’s Reebok-clad sponsorship world: Be in the top-one percentile in another profession, too. Jouban will look to keep his face Versace-ready against Albert Tumenov. Don’t let the looks deceive you. Jouban has banked to “Fight of the Night” bonuses in four UFC outings.

AWARDS WATCH: Cormier’s light heavyweight title reign started with dismissive talk of Gustafsson’s credentials as a contender. Look for the challenger to end up on his back while Cormier demeans the Swede’s place in the division further with a post-fight performance bonus … Sage Northcutt, 19, will debut at lightweight, making “Super” the youngest fighter on the UFC roster. His unorthodox striking and active footwork cash in a performance bonus in an ideal UFC arrival against Mexican veteran Francisco Trevino … Women’s bantamweights Jessica Eye and Julianna Pena have the striker-versus-grappler style clash and fiery competitiveness to bring out a “Fight of the Night” performance in a pivotal showdown in the Ronda Rousey sweepstakes.

Danny Acosta is a SiriusXM Rush (Channel 93) host and contributor. His writing has been featured on Sherdog.com for nearly a decade. Find him on Twitter and Instagram @acostaislegend.