Stand and Deliver: UFC on ESPN 26

To some, a win is a win and a loss is a loss. But while every fight matters, some feel as if they matter more. In some cases, the reasons are easy to define. Picture the fighter on a losing streak who knows he or she is likely fighting for their job; or conversely, any matchup on Dana White's Contender Series, where two hopefuls know that the brass ring is within their reach if they can win impressively. In other cases, a fight feels especially important for reasons that are harder to quantify, but no less real. Whether it’s the pressure of being a pioneer in MMA from one’s country, or the simple added spice of two fighters who really hate each other’s guts, that fight means just a little more.

After the shock, bombast and controversy of UFC 264 last Saturday — to say nothing of the aftermath — even the most insatiable of MMA fans couldn’t be blamed for feeling a bit of a hangover. To the rescue, like a freshly-squeezed glass of orange juice and a couple of ibuprofen, is the smooth and mellow UFC on ESPN 26, which takes place this weekend at the Apex in Las Vegas. With just 11 fights, only one of which carries definite Top 10 implications, “UFC Vegas 31” is about as light and breezy an offering as you’re likely to see from the promotion between now and the end of the year.

That doesn’t mean, however, that the event is devoid of interest. On the contrary, there is an intriguing combination of surging prospects looking to keep their momentum, tarnished prospects looking to regain it, and the return of a star many thought we might never see in the Octagon again. Even if the stakes aren’t there at a title-shot level, these fights are plenty important to the men and women in the cage, and in a couple of cases, they’re absolutely crucial. Here are three fighters under a little extra pressure to stand and deliver at UFC 264.

Islam Makhachev: No Pressure, Just Be Khabib (Part 2)

Makhachev appeared in this column in March, ahead of his fight against Drew Dober at UFC 259. Everything I said then still applies now. Due to his longtime training relationship with Khabib Nurmagomedov and the general similarities between their skill sets and appearance, the 29-year-old Dagestani will always be saddled with comparisons to the greatest lightweight of all time — for as long as he keeps winning, at least. In March, he had to deal with the pressure of being a 4-to-1 favorite over a fighter as good and as dangerous as Dober. He passed that test with flying colors, mauling Dober on the ground on the way to a third-round submission. As his reward, he now enters this Saturday’s main event as a 6-to-1 favorite over a fighter in Thiago Moises who might be even better and more dangerous than Dober.

Plenty of fighters like to claim that nobody wants to fight them and that everyone turns them down, and most of the time it’s transparently not the case. Look no further than Sean O'Malley, who punched Octagon newcomer Kris Moutinho into fame last weekend after half the bantamweights in the UFC had waved their arms and jumped up and down for Sean Shelby’s attention like contestants on “The Price is Right.” Makhachev is different, and the long odds in this fight — very rare for a UFC main event — are an indicator of the difficulty the promotion must be having in finding opponents for the AKA bulldozer. By the optics of whom he’s beating and how he’s doing it, it seems he may not be truly challenged until he reaches title contention. In some ways, all Makhachev needs to do here is survive and advance in order to be looking at a likely Top 5 matchup in his next outing, but especially given his penchant for long absences — another similarity to Nurmagomedov, unfortunately — any misstep could set him back enormously.

Cash Grab, Publicity Stunt or Comeback, Miesha Tate?

Count me among those who had sort of given up on the possibility of seeing the former bantamweight champ fight again — let alone in the Octagon. Her surprise retirement in 2017 at age 30, just months removed from her title reign, and her subsequent very public work as a vice-president of athlete relations at One Championship, seemed to point to a woman who had moved on to the next phase of her life.

Also count me among those who are very interested to see Tate back in action. Still just 34, it isn’t exactly as if the division has moved on without her. The last two women to defeat Tate, Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington, are still the champ and a Top 10 mainstay respectively, and the woman Tate beat to win the belt, Holly Holm, remains so formidable at age 39 that she’s causing a bottleneck for title contenders in two different weight classes. In other words, if Tate is the same fighter she was in 2016, she could be right back in the thick of things in the 135-pound division. That’s the question, however: Is she the same fighter, or anything close to it? Physically, there’s no reason she couldn’t be. The other big question is how well she has kept up with the sport. Witness Conor McGregor’s first outing against Dustin Poirier back in January to see how a couple of years away can leave a top fighter ill-equipped to deal with new trends and tactical developments.

Those questions will be answered in Saturday’s co-main event, and while this is unlikely to be a do-or-die fight for Tate unless she decides it is, it will absolutely shape public perception of how seriously she is taking her comeback. Marion Reneau is a perfect foil for Tate’s return; her four-fight losing streak is highly deceptive, as all four losses were competitive decisions against Top 10 fighters. “The Belizean Bruiser” will show us whether Tate is dipping her toes in the water here, or jumping back into the pool in earnest.

Make Us Forget, Rodolfo Vieira

There’s no getting around it: Vieira’s UFC 258 appearance was an embarrassment. “The Black Belt Hunter” entered the promotion as a 5-0 MMA prospect and one of the most decorated grapplers ever to cross over, and went on to pocket two submission wins inside the Octagon before his February match. Faced with an opponent in Anthony Hernandez who was a submission artist by preference, Vieira seemed set up for success. Instead, he gassed out horribly within half a round, to the point of being barely able to stand, and in the ultimate humiliation, had to tap to a guillotine in the second. It was one of the bigger upsets in the UFC this year, and Hernandez by submission in particular was around a +3000 prop bet.

UFC on ESPN 26 brings Vieira a chance to redeem himself. In Dustin Stoltzfus, Vieira once again faces an opponent whose best weapon is his ground game, but who should be at a significant strength and technique disadvantage. Did a showcase-UFC-fight adrenaline dump waylay Vieira in February? Has the former heavyweight grappler made changes in his diet and training to serve him better as a middleweight mixed martial artist? Will he be prepared to fight hard into the second and third round if he can’t put away Stoltzfus early? Whatever the reasons for the disappointing performance, this is Vieira’s chance to salvage his blue-chip status, if not his roster spot.