The Bottom Line: Parity Problem

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Regardless of whether one feels the judges’ decision for Robbie Lawler at UFC 195 on Saturday was justifiable, there’s no question that the nature of the fight, with Carlos Condit outlanding him 176-92, left a great deal of doubt as to whether the champion would win a rematch. That’s been a trend during Lawler’s reign, which has been defined by terrific fights and courageous performances but little clarity as to the proper pecking order in the 170-pound division.

When Robbie Lawler won the Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight title, it was via a close split decision against Johny Hendricks at UFC 181. That was the second close fight between Hendricks and Lawler, with Hendricks getting the nod in the first nine months earlier. Rematch fatigue was part of the reason that Condit got the most recent title shot rather than Hendricks, but now there are two different opponents with rematch claims. Even in the most decisive win of Lawler’s reign, over Rory MacDonald at UFC 189, he was down two points on all the judges’ scorecards going into the final round.

This isn’t a knock on Lawler, a tough competitor who has provided a stiff challenge for the best fighters in his division. It’s just the nature of the division itself, where all the top fighters are clustered together with the feeling that anyone could beat anyone else on any given night. Beyond Lawler, all the top fighters in the division have a confusing mix of key wins and losses.

Condit, gunning for a rematch, has a win over MacDonald in which he was down big but came back late. His loss to Hendricks fit that same pattern. A loss to Tyron Woodley came as a result of a fluky knee injury. Woodley has that win over Condit and a win over Dong Hyun Kim but lost a clear-cut decision to MacDonald. Meanwhile, MacDonald had the setbacks against Lawler and Condit but holds wins over Woodley and Demian Maia. Hendricks, besides trading wins with Lawler, has wins over Condit and Matt Brown, plus a controversial loss to Georges St. Pierre. If you like to do MMA math, this is the division for you.

Parity isn’t necessarily a bad thing in sports. The NFL has purposely sought to create a league of relatively evenly matched teams. That parity has worked to the NFL’s advantage and made the league more successful. The difference between an individual sport and a team sport is you don’t have strong local bases of support rooting for each athlete. With fan bases invested in specific teams, it’s a positive when they have hope their team can go on a run. It keeps them invested year to year.

The dynamics are different for individual sports, where star power reigns. From Ronda Rousey to Floyd Mayweather Jr., athletic dominance lends itself to fan excitement. Fans want to see fighters they perceive to be special, not a sea of fighters who are all very good but none all that much better than the next. Simple domination does not guarantee stardom. Just ask Demetrious Johnson. However, it’s much easier to capture the public imagination if you’re the clear best fighter in your division.

The biggest MMA fights historically occur most often when you have two dominant fighters in the same division who have separated themselves from the rest of the competition. They then battle to prove who the clear cream of the crop is in the weight class. Those are the fights where the stakes feel the highest because doubt about who is the best has been removed for the time being. The welterweight division doesn’t have anything resembling that.

When the fighters competing for a title haven’t separated themselves from the field, the stakes feel lower. Let’s say for the sake of argument the next fights in the division are Lawler vs. Condit 2, MacDonald vs. Hendricks and Woodley vs. Maia. Those are three terrific fights, but ask 100 fans to identify the best fighter in the division and answers are going to be all over the place. Without that clarity, the championship just feels like an accessory, with the fights speaking for themselves. You can certainly do worse than having a series of competitive, high-level fights, but there’s something to be said for a big-time championship showdown.

The current state of the division stands out more because of its history, which has been marked by long title runs from St. Pierre, Pat Miletich and Matt Hughes. St. Pierre and Hughes were during their reigns two of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, and the welterweight division was defined by fighters rising up the ranks to get their opportunity to dethrone the dominant kingpin. The fact that St. Pierre was the fighter to end Hughes’ run once and for all played a massive role in elevating his stature, and GSP’s run as champion produced some of the biggest events in MMA history.

Over two years since he left the stage, St. Pierre’s legacy still hangs over the welterweight division. The current elite welterweights haven’t been able to capture the public imagination that St. Pierre did, and the division’s evenness is a significant part of that. It’s unlikely the division will regain its stature until someone can begin to dominate in a way at least comparable to St. Pierre. Unfortunately, it feels like it’s going to be a long time before that happens. Luckily, we’ve got fights like Lawler vs. Condit to tide us over until it does.