The Bottom Line: Potential Exists for a Night to Remember
UFC 232 is now available on Amazon Prime.
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The last-minute buzz for UFC 232 has of course become engulfed by more Jon Jones controversy. That was far from unforeseeable given Jones’ track record and the track record of the Ultimate Fighting Championship and United States Anti-Doping Agency bending over backwards to accommodate the former light heavyweight titleholder. Still, the spectacle of fans and fighters being told that a show in Las Vegas was being moved to a different city on six days’ notice is so wild that it stands out even in the long history of Jones-related nonsense.
If the results at UFC 232 go according to the betting odds and the
favorites take the top two fights, the event is likely to be most
remembered for the venue switch. However, lost in the tumult is the
far-from-remote chance that Saturday could mark a significant
historical moment, as two of the most impressive streaks in the
history of the sport are in real jeopardy of coming to an end.
The last time Cristiane Justino lost an MMA fight, Evan Tanner was the UFC middleweight champion. Jones is for all real intents and purposes undefeated over the course of his decade-long career. They have been dominant for so long that their success is almost taken for granted, like Fedor Emelianenko before his fight with Fabricio Werdum or Ronda Rousey before her fight with Holly Holm. Those points in time when longstanding champions finally fall are arguably MMA’s most memorable moments, and lost in all the chaos is the idea that one or even two of those moments could be coming in just a few days.
Few opponents over the course of Jones’ career have given him too much difficulty. The one who gave him the most was almost certainly Alexander Gustafsson. Their classic 2013 bout in Toronto stands out as one of the best light heavyweight fights in the history of the sport. Gustafsson’s height presented Jones unique challenges, and the Swede goes into the rematch with a confidence that few “Bones” opponents have enjoyed. Gustafsson knows he has proven to Jones he can compete on that level.
Jones has downplayed the way the first fight went by saying he came into the fight not fully prepared and not taking Gustafsson seriously enough. However, there’s much reason to believe Gustafsson is in a better position to win than when they fought the first time. The two competitors were born the same year, so age is not a factor. However, Jones was much more active and was fighting at a much higher level before their first bout. Jones had won three fights in the last year and a half before their first meeting. This time, Jones has fought three times in the last four and a half years.
Some fighters stay in the gym year-round, whether they are fighting or not. Jones, by contrast, always had a reputation for liking to have fun outside the cage. Jones is too much of a competitor to not be working hard on his game, but there are different levels of diligence when it comes to the upper echelon of the sport. However, speculation isn’t even needed. Jones’ performances inside the Octagon in recent years haven’t been as dominant as they once were.
In his most recent outings, Jones won a unanimous decision against Ovince St. Preux and knocked out Daniel Cormier in the third round of a fight where the result was later overturned. In both fights, Jones did not look on top of his game like he once was. Against St. Preux, Jones landed only a few more strikes in five rounds than Dominick Reyes did in three. Jones wasn’t able to capitalize with submissions like Glover Teixeira and Ilir Latifi did. It was still a quality win, but overall, it was one of the least impressive in Jones’ UFC career.
Next time out, Jones scored a spectacular finish against Cormier, but that masked the fact that “DC” was giving his nemesis trouble early. That, in some ways, didn’t make a lot of sense. Jones had already beaten Cormier, and in the interim time period, “DC” advanced into his late 30s. In their first fight, Sherdog’s three scorers gave Cormier a collective four rounds out of 15. In their second fight, Sherdog gave Cormier four rounds out of eight before the finish. There’s reason to believe opponents are catching up with Jones during his absence, and Gustafsson was closer than the others to begin with. It’s a very dangerous fight for the all-time great.
Justino occupies a lofty place in the pantheon of top female fighters, just like Jones does among male fighters. Like Jones, she has a tough obstacle in front of her in Inglewood, California. Amanda Nunes doesn’t have a previous fight from which to draw confidence like Gustafsson does, but she enters the fight with more momentum. She has five finishes during her seven-fight winning streak. The only decisions were against the great Valentina Shevchenko, who has been dominant in recent years when not fighting Nunes. “Lioness” possesses power that few Justino opponents have had and confidence to carry her through.
Nunes has an additional advantage that opponents for years didn’t have against Justino: recent fight tape. Justino for most of her prime has just been rolling through opponents in short and not particularly competitive bouts. This didn’t provide opponents a lot of recent video to study her tendencies and game plan accordingly. Nunes, on the other hand, has Justino’s long fight with Holm and even a little-bit-longer-than-usual bout against Tonya Evinger to study. Justino clearly won the decision against Holm, but the latter also had more success with “Cyborg” than any opponent in a long time. That could work in Nunes’ favor.
The UFC 232 venue switch right now casts a shadow over the event, and there are likely some fans attending live who won’t soon forget that. However, that all could be forgotten by most in pretty short time because it has real potential to be a historically important card.
Todd Martin has written about mixed martial arts since 2002 for a variety of outlets, including CBSSports.com, SI.com, ESPN.com, the Los Angeles Times, MMApayout.com, Fight Magazine and Fighting Spirit Magazine. He has appeared on a number of radio stations, including ESPN affiliates in New York and Washington, D.C., and HDNet’s “Inside MMA” television show. In addition to his work at Sherdog.com, he does a weekly podcast with Wade Keller at PWTorch.com and blogs regularly at LaTimes.com. Todd received his BA from Vassar College in 2003 and JD from UCLA School of Law in 2007 and is a licensed attorney. He has covered UFC, Pride, Bellator, Affliction, IFL, WFA, Strikeforce, WEC and K-1 live events. He believes deeply in the power of MMA to heal the world and bring happiness to all of its people.
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