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UFC 88 Breakdown: Henderson vs. Palhares

As the short list of middleweight contenders continues to get whittled down thanks to Anderson Silva (Pictures)’s reign of fistic terror, a battletested veteran looks to get his name back on the ballot Saturday while a Brazilian phenom tries to cut to the front of the line.

On a card loaded with middleweight ramifications, the UFC 88 tilt between Dan “Hollywood” Henderson (Pictures) and Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares (Pictures) may be the bout that gives us the best idea of where the division is headed.

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A win for Henderson keeps the old guard in the picture while Palhares has a chance to announce the next generation’s arrival in the middleweight division. Either way, this go-round makes for a definite “Fight of the Night” contender.

Henderson Scouting Report

Ht/Wt: 6’1”/185 lbs.
Age: 38
Hometown: Downey, Calif.
Fighting out of: Temecula, Calif.
MMA record: 22-7


Did you know? After losing two fights in a row for the first time in nearly five years, Henderson overhauled his training regime by ditching the mythic Big Bear training compound and choosing to keep his training camp close to home in Temecula, Calif.

Bio: One of the few fighters around with 10 years of service under his belt, Henderson has spent most of that time as a top-10 light heavyweight despite a chorus of pleas from his fans to drop to the middleweight division.

Ironically, Henderson has been an erratic performer at 185 pounds despite being captain consistency as a 205-pounder. The Jekyll and Hyde routine has seen Henderson look like a world-beater against the likes of Murilo Bustamante (Pictures) and Ryo Chonan (Pictures) but sleepwalk through bouts with Yuki Kondo (Pictures) and Kazuo Misaki (Pictures).

The tide seemed to turn for Henderson, however, as he bested Wanderlei Silva (Pictures) for Pride’s 205-pound title just as the UFC swooped in and annexed its long-time competitor. Unfortunately, opportunity quickly turned into disaster as Henderson has dropped title bouts with Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Anderson Silva since his return to the UFC.

Another stumble may see the 38-year-old relegated to the scrap heap and written off as another veteran who didn’t know when to call it a career.

Why he’ll win: Over the course of 10-plus years and nearly 30 bouts, Henderson has remained notoriously difficult to submit and submissions are Palhares’ Plans A, B and C. More importantly, Henderson has the wrestling and striking to either test Palhares on the feet or wear him down with ground-and-pound.

Why he’ll lose: While Henderson is indeed difficult to submit, that has a lot to do with him facing grapplers who know wrestling about as well as they know theoretical physics. Palhares will press for the takedown from the opening bell and needs only the smallest of openings to capitalize.

Photo by Sherdog.com

Slick BJJ star Rousimar Palhares
will look to test Henderson's
ground game at UFC 88.
Palhares Scouting Report

Ht/Wt: 5’8”/185 lbs.
Age: 28
Hometown: Dores Do Indaia, Brazil
Fighting out of: Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
MMA record: 8-1


Did you know? Palhares is the protégé of former UFC middleweight champion Murilo Bustamante -- the first Brazilian to win a title in any weight class under the UFC banner.

Bio: Long regarded as one of the premier prospects in the always talent-packed Brazilian MMA scene, Palhares first came to prominence as the Brazilian Top Team’s resident Chute Boxe hunter by notching wins over three different members of the BTT rival in his first seven bouts.

As the hype grew, it became apparent that Palhares had outgrown the local Brazilian circuit. It wasn’t long before the UFC came a-knocking for the prized pupil of their former middleweight champion.

Obviously, a UFC contract is the goal for almost any up-and-comer. But with just eight fights’ worth of professional experience, you couldn’t help but wonder if inexperience would only serve to make the infamous UFC jitters even worse for Palhares.

Those doubts lasted all of two minutes and 36 seconds as Palhares bested well-respected veteran Ivan Salaverry (Pictures) and made it look as easy as Dick Cheney frightening a pack of schoolchildren. Things never stay that easy in the UFC, however, and everyone knows that can’t-miss prospects turn into cautionary tales more often than not.

Why he’ll win: Anyone who trifles with Palhares on the ground is putting himself at risk of being dissected. Good as Henderson’s wrestling may be, his looping punching style often leaves him open to takedowns -- a flaw Palhares is custom made to exploit.

Why he’ll lose: No one knows a thing about Palhares’ striking ability. Worse yet, many a jiu-jitsu wizard has turned into a fetal model after getting popped in the face. Henderson is the kind of guy who will test your will, and Palhares may not be ready for such a war of attrition.

The X factor: Fighting in the UFC brings enough pressure as is, and Palhares has to deal with the fact that Henderson holds a pair of wins over his trainer, Murilo Bustamante. The added pressure of avenging his trainer may lead to some bad decision-making inside the cage from Palhares.


* * *


The bottom line: It’s always hard to pick against a game competitor like Henderson, but his middleweight run has seen more ups and downs than Eddie Murphy’s comedy career while Palhares is steamrolling anyone put in his path. It won’t be easy for Palhares, but another uninspired showing by “Hollywood” will pave the way to another win for “Toquinho.”
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