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UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

C | Rose Namajunas (10-4, 8-3 UFC) vs. #1 WSW | Weili Zhang (21-2, 5-1 UFC)

ODDS: Zhang (-115), Namajunas (-105)

It has been a career full of highs and lows for Namajunas. She quickly put herself on the map as a prospect to watch in Invicta Fighting Championships, scoring a 12-second flying armbar victory in just her second pro fight while showing some natural charisma. Once the UFC decided to open the doors to a strawweight division, it seemed Namajunas might be destined for stardom quicker than anyone expected. She was a clear standout on her season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” both in terms of camera time and performances, riding a string of submissions to the final that doubled as the division’s inaugural title fight. Carla Esparza wound up handling Namajunas in that final, but “Thug Rose” quickly regrouped for a run up the ladder that, while quite successful in terms of results, still served as a rocky road back to title contention. Namajunas has been open over the course of her career about her struggles with her mental health, which have sometimes bled over into her fights, most notably a clinch-heavy loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz that briefly slowed her rise to contention. That was the backdrop to her 2017 title challenge against Joanna Jedrzejczyk—a dominant champion who had essentially cleaned out the division and was more than willing to make Namajunas’ perceived mental weakness a key part of the buildup. That in turn made the upset all the more cathartic for Namajunas and her fanbase, as she scored a first-round knockout and followed it with her best performance to date: a decision win in a Jedrzejczyk rematch that saw her constantly fight back from adversity. Namajunas seemed to finally be turning the corner as a champion and a fully realized fighter, until her title defense against Jessica Andrade. For about a round, Namajunas continued to show the sharpest form of her career with some shockingly crisp boxing, but one clinch exchange was enough to turn around the fight, as Andrade used the opportunity to slam “Thug Rose” directly onto her head and take the title in violent fashion. There seemed to be a chance that Namajunas would walk away from the sport, but she returned about a year later for what was now a non-title fight against Andrade and looked solid, getting off to a hot start before the Brazilian’s physicality and pressure seemed to wear on her late. It was not a dominant performance, but it was enough to make her the No. 1 contender for Zhang. Some questionable buildup, mostly centering around Namajunas’ thoughts about China, set up what figured to be an excellently matched fight that, in practice, was essentially over before it started, with the Milwaukee native shocking Zhang with a kick to the head just 78 seconds into the fight for a sudden knockout. Based on merit, there were a few different options as far as Namajunas’ next contender, but the UFC decided to go the most marketable route—at least where international business interests are concerned—and grant Zhang an immediate rematch that hopefully provides a bit more of an extended chess match than their first encounter.

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Zhang’s rise was surely aided by the UFC’s desire for a Chinese star, but it is worth noting that “Magnum” more than lived up to her billing every step of her way up the ladder. Zhang came to the UFC in 2018 with a rightful amount of hype as one of her native country’s best talents; the Chinese scene can be spotty, but Zhang was clearly someone who separated herself as ready to compete at a high level on the international scene; and that she did. A clear win in her debut over Danielle Taylor gave way to a mauling of Jessica Aguilar, and with one more victory over Tecia Torres, Zhang was clearly a potential title contender just seven months into her UFC career. As it turned out, she was actually the top contender. The UFC had an upcoming card earmarked for mainland China, and the promotion decided that Zhang challenging Andrade for the strawweight belt would be the most marketable option. It was unclear if Zhang was actually ready for such a shot, but she answered any questions clearly in the affirmative, running through Andrade and becoming China’s first UFC champion in just 42 seconds. Then came Zhang’s first title defense, a star-making performance against Jedrzejczyk in one of the greatest fights of all-time—a five-round war that seemingly dashed any lingering concerns about her ability to survive in the deepest of the sport’s waters. While it seemed like Zhang was on the verge of becoming something truly special after that fight, the ensuing year and a half has been mostly a disaster. There was obviously the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent issues surrounding Zhang’s ability to travel for a fight, and the xenophobic build to the Namajunas fight gave way to a quick and embarrassing loss. An ability to regroup from such a setback is the last thing that Zhang has left to prove, and she will look to do so in this rematch.

While Namajunas’ first win was far from a fluke, the hope is that this one does not end quite as suddenly, since it remains an excellently made matchup on paper. Going into the first fight, one of the main questions centered around Namajunas’ ability to survive five rounds with Zhang, which is a bit funny since the latter was the one who was unable to make it past the opening two minutes. At any rate, the two Andrade fights had re-opened up some of the questions that Jedrzejczyk initially hoped to exploit. Andrade’s relentless pressure and impressive physicality led to an obviously spectacular finish in her first fight with Namajunas, then certainly paid dividends in the third round of their rematch. With Zhang as a comparable physical threat with much more technique, the thought was that she could eventually turn a permanent corner and take Namajunas out of her comfort zone in the latter stretches of their fight. That is all still true, but the result of their first fight—quick as it was—does change the calculus quite a bit, particularly in terms of how much of a lead Namajunas can build before things possibly go south. While Zhang was doing some work with kicks to Namajunas’ legs, there was still a startling speed difference that allowed “Thug Rose” to get off to her quick start and spark her counterpart for the finish. For as good as Zhang has generally looked, there are now some durability questions, at least at this level. Zhang’s best extended performances came against Torres and Jedrzejczyk, neither of them true knockout threats, and the Andrade fight was basically over before it began. While Zhang may be able to survive a five-round war, it is still a question about whether she can get caught by someone with the range and precision that Namajunas can bring to the table on a consistent basis. This could all just be overthinking things based on a 78-second knockout, and Zhang could just physically take charge of this fight over any extended period of time, but it does feel like some of the questions from the first fight have shifted a bit to her corner. Having now seen the first fight, it is a lot less certain that Zhang can consistently close the distance to make this more of a grind, particularly since she does need to regroup at times over 25 minutes. This should be a war for as long as it lasts, which is hopefully a good long while, but Namajunas showed enough in the first fight to give her the nod even if this turns out to go the long haul. The pick is Namajunas via decision.

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