Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Penn’

Lightweights

Joe Lauzon (26-12) vs. Marcin Held (22-5)

THE MATCHUP: In many ways, Lauzon and Held are similar fighters. First of all, their styles make no sense. They dive on oddball submissions at every opportunity and typically exhaust themselves well before the start of the third round. The key difference is that Lauzon hits really hard and Held does not. You could perhaps call age a defining factor as well -- Held is nearly a decade younger than the veteran “J-Lau” -- but in truth, Lauzon has shown few signs of really slowing down, at least not as many as you would expect given his long career and interminably brutal schedule.

Perhaps the best way to analyze this matchup is to use a little MMA math and compare how both men dealt with Diego Sanchez in 2016. “The Nightmare” is one of the most shopworn fighters in the UFC, but he is damned consistent. I picked him to beat Lauzon, expecting him to survive the early onslaught and use his trusty jiu-jitsu to pick up the last two rounds; and then Lauzon splattered Sanchez’s head all over the fence in just over a minute. I assumed I had overestimated Sanchez and picked against him in his next fight against Marcin Held. It turned out I had not underestimated Sanchez -- he was still rugged and utterly indefatigable. No, I had underestimated Lauzon, namely his punching power. Held never came close to hurting Sanchez, and when his stamina began to drain and his organic submission grappling became predictable, Sanchez had no trouble controlling him on the ground en route to a decision win.

So what happens when you match Lauzon against a relatively powerless version of himself? My instinct is to pick the vet. True, Held’s grappling style is different than most. He tends heavily toward leg lock attacks and cares little about securing top position before pursuing the tap. Though patently aggressive, Lauzon is not immune to submissions and has been forced to tap three times before. In the end, however, “J-Lau” simply has more options at his disposal. He is dangerous in every phase and position, and Held is not.

THE ODDS: Lauzon (-120), Held (+100)

THE PICK: First things first: This fight will be fun. Seeing Lauzon and Held tangle on the ground should be a great way to kick off a new year of MMA; and because both men are so creative and aggressive with their submissions, this fight could end at any moment, with either man the victor. Sometimes, however, simple MMA math is the way to go, and it is difficult to look at this matchup between similar fighters and not give the edge to the man with knockout power in both hands. Expect Lauzon to score with a few heavy blows before locking in the choke. Lauzon by second-round submission is the pick.

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