Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rothwell vs. Dos Santos’

Heavyweights

Gabriel Gonzaga (17-10) vs. Derrick Lewis (14-4)

THE MATCHUP: It was nearly 10 years ago that Gonzaga head kicked Mirko Filipovic into unconsciousness and the MMA world agreed that his ceiling was very high indeed. Instead, the next decade was fraught with difficulty, each decent win balanced out by a devastating loss. All told, Gonzaga has gone 9-9 since that stunning victory. Granted, most of the losses were to elite competition and a few of the wins, as well. Still, Gonzaga’s decline seems to have been cemented by the fact that “Cro Cop,” far worse for the wear than he was when the two first met, returned to the UFC in April 2015 and returned the favor.

The questions remain: Has Gonzaga fallen far enough to lose to Derrick Lewis or has Lewis improved enough to beat Gonzaga?

Lewis’ problems are more easily gotten at than those of Gonzaga. He has often suffered for placing too much trust in his power -- Who could blame him? -- and his ground game remains underdeveloped. Still, Lewis fans saw a glimmer of hope for “The Black Beast” when he fought Viktor Pesta. Lewis, who cuts weight to make the 265-pound limit, has tended to gas himself out in the past while seeking the knockout. Although Pesta took full advantage of Lewis’ rudimentary wrestling and controlled him for most of two rounds, Lewis was able to surge to victory in the third round. Put in several bad positions on the ground, Lewis nonetheless stayed calm, conserved his energy and wisely chose when to apply his explosive strength. In the end, it was Pesta gasping for breath, not Lewis.

Whether or not that will be enough to stop Gonzaga depends largely on Gonzaga himself. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist is famously inconsistent, perhaps because he still holds a part-time job and runs his own team. Questions about Gonzaga’s preparation and motivation are neither uncommon nor invalid. Recently, Gonzaga has more or less taken the form of an out-fighter. He stalks or retreats, maintaining a long distance, and looks to connect with either an overhand counter or a round kick. His shot takedowns are not superb, but when his opponent overcommits, he is capable of hitting an excellent reactive double-leg. On the ground, Gonzaga is obviously a dangerous submission specialist with a punishing top game and a potent selection of chokes and arm locks. If Lewis does get taken down, his tendency to give up his back could spell doom against “Napao.”

THE ODDS: Lewis (-140), Gonzaga (+120)

THE PICK: It would not be shocking to see Gonzaga win this fight. He has power, a well-rounded game and a great deal of high-level experience. Should he find himself on top of Lewis, Gonzaga’s chances will skyrocket. Still, it is hard to escape the impression that Gonzaga is fading. He is only 36 -- not bad for a heavyweight -- but his 13-year career has been a hard one. Gonzaga has been knocked out eight times, and his most recent run of losses was arguably his worst. If Lewis can pick his spots and deny Gonzaga the grappling opportunities he needs, then this is his fight to lose. The pick is Lewis by second-round KO.

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