UFC Fight Night ‘Bader vs. St. Preux’ Preview

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Lightweights

Ross Pearson (15-7, 7-4 UFC) vs. Gray Maynard (11-3-1, 9-3-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Pearson wastes no time getting back in action following one of the worst robberies in MMA history -- a decision for Diego Sanchez so redolent of Albuquerque, N.M., home cooking that you could practically smell the Hatch green chilies through the TV. That display of judging incompetence took away what would have been the capstone to the solid career Pearson has built for himself since winning the ninth season of “The Ultimate Fighter” more than five years ago.

For Maynard, this fight is do-or-die: the former title challenger is coming off a pair of first-round knockout losses to Nate Diaz and T.J. Grant and desperately needs a win to show he still belongs in the conversation at lightweight.

Prior to his ill-fated drop to featherweight, Pearson was mostly notable as a skilled but pillow-fisted volume striker with excellent takedown defense and just enough offensive wrestling to keep his opponents honest.

Since returning to lightweight, however, Pearson has shown an improved ability to get his weight behind his punches: he has scored at least one knockdown in three of four outings, and his shots visibly move his opponents in a way they did not a few years back. Mostly a boxer who throws the occasional kick and knee, Pearson excels in the pocket, where his outstanding head movement and newfound power punching ability can make his opponent pay dearly for missed shots and momentary defensive lapses. Pearson is polished and capable of beating all but the division’s very best strikers on the feet.

The increasing weakness of Maynard’s chin, a trend that began with his knockout loss to Frankie Edgar almost three years ago, has overshadowed the most recent steps in his evolution from one-dimensional wrestler to skilled wrestle-boxer. The three-time All-American at Michigan State University has used his wrestling less and his striking more over the past several years, though he is still capable of hitting the occasional takedown when he chooses. Maynard excels in exchanges, throwing hard counter combinations instead of the winging single shots he tossed at his opponent early in his career and is generally sound on defense. When Maynard gets hit, however, he tends to eat flush shots on the chin, and this has been behind his recent downfall.

Betting Odds: Pearson (-120), Maynard (Even)

The Pick: Given both fighters’ outstanding defensive wrestling, I expect this to be contested mostly on the feet, though it would be surprising if Maynard did not attempt a takedown or two to keep Pearson on his toes. Assuming this does become a striking match, it will probably be contested mostly at boxing distance, which is the strong point for both Pearson and Maynard. Pearson should be the more technical and skilled fighter in this kind of scrap, and his recent track record of power striking creates serious problems for the hittable Maynard. Pearson wins by unanimous decision in an exciting fight.

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