Preview: UFC 302 Prelims

Welterweights

Jake Matthews (19-7, 12-7 UFC) vs. Philip Rowe (10-4, 3-2 UFC)

ODDS: Matthews (-162), Rowe (+136)

Matthews keeps chugging along. The UFC has a fairly deep roster of stars from Australia and New Zealand at this point, but back in 2014, the hope was that Matthews would be one of the promotion’s first big breakout fighters from the region. A fresh-faced 19-year-old at the time of his UFC debut, Matthews had already established himself as a standout grappler at lightweight. “The Celtic Kid” had a solid run at 155 pounds before a surprising upset loss to Andrew Holbrook at the end of 2016, after which Matthews took a year off and came back as a much different fighter. With a move up to welterweight for his next fight against Bojan Velickovic, Matthews suddenly had the physicality to act as an effective bully. That has made it frustrating to see Matthews slowly pivot to a style that has moved away from what were once his strengths. He still flashes his wrestling and grappling at points, but Matthews has mostly settled into a range striking style that tends to favor safety over pace and aggression. Performances like his 2022 beating of Andre Fialho make it hard to fully write Matthews off, but there’s just as many disheartening losses in recent memory. In fights against Matthew Semelsberger and Michael Morales, Matthews never pushed things against opponents who could hang with him at range.

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On the other side of the Octagon, Rowe certainly has the physical gifts to challenge Matthews—"The Fresh Prince” is one of the longest welterweights in the UFC—but he isn’t the most reliable at maximizing his chances at victory. Rowe’s contract-earning win on the Contender Series in 2019 showed off the highs and lows of his game at the time. Rowe just didn’t do much of anything for the better part of two rounds before uncorking a knockout finish in the third round. The hope was that Rowe, still early in his career in terms of facing relevant competition, would gain enough experience to get comfortable pressing a firefight, but instead, he kept an inactive schedule and only improved in fits and starts. After getting drowned in volume by Gabriel Green, Rowe strung together three straight wins with his usual combination of slow starts leading to late finishes, which earned him a big chance against Neil Magny. The good news is that Rowe finally pressured an opponent from the start, but the bad news was that it resulted in a clinch-heavy loss with Magny, one of the most underrated clinch artists in the division. The likeliest scenario for this fight seems to be Matthews once again being content to lose a slow-paced kickboxing match from range, but there is the worry that Rowe won’t take the path presented to him, whether via not throwing enough output on the feet or forcing a wrestling match against a better grappler. Still, the pick is Rowe via decision.

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