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Bantamweights

Iuri Alcantara (33-6) vs. Jimmie Rivera (18-1)

THE MATCHUP: The bantamweight division is a strange and fascinating place, and nothing illustrates that better than this fight. Alcantara has plenty of impressive wins from lightweight to bantamweight, but he has consistently struggled to break through as a top 10 talent. He now finds himself matched with a man who could very well do just that within the space of six months, should he win this weekend. Alcantara is an enigmatic fighter and a difficult one for which to prepare. His striking is powerful and accurate, but he seems to pick his next move out of thin air. There is little rhyme to what Alcantara does from one moment to the next. He is a tactical fighter through and through, and that is as much a boon as it is a curse.

Alcantara prefers to strike whenever possible, but he is far from clueless on the ground. He has excellent, technical jiu-jitsu, and capable wrestling, as well. His problem in the grappling department, as in the striking, seems to be a lack of patience. Twenty-five of Alcantara’s 32 wins have come via finish, and that illustrates very well the ethos of his MMA game. He is a stable positional grappler on the ground, but he tends to advance or attack the moment he sees an opportunity. He is a solid wrestler, but he has no qualms about going for sacrifice throws and high-risk hip tosses; and of course, Alcantara is a fantastic striker, but he often dives into reactive takedowns while looking for one big knockout punch.

Jimmie Rivera is conceptually very much Alcantara’s opposite. Where Alcantara is long and lean, Rivera is built like a stump. Where Alcantara likes to lead, Rivera prefers to counter. Where Alcantara pot shots and looks for dramatic, fight-changing attacks, Rivera almost always throws in combination. Where Alcantara sometimes gets lost in the flow of the fight, Rivera is a strategic fighter: Despite his natural power, he has gone to a decision in 13 of his 18 bouts, mostly because he bides his time and leans on his wrestling rather than actively pursuing the finish.

Essentially, Rivera is a wrestle-boxer with a counter puncher’s bent. He keeps his hands on a hair trigger and moves his head very well, whether reacting to the opponent’s offense or while throwing a combination. A Tiger Schulmann student, Rivera is more Dutch kickboxer than karateka. He likes to follow his punches with kicks, often shifting into a left body kick after landing his right hand. Rivera is also more than happy to grind an opponent out against the fence or on the ground, using his stout frame and strength to shut down the movement of a light-footed foe.

THE ODDS: Rivera (-165), Alcantara (+140)

THE PICK: Alcantara will have significant height and reach advantages over Rivera, and he is comfortable striking from long range. However, he is also prone to throwing himself aggressively into the pocket with those long strikes, which leaves him vulnerable to well-timed counters, whether in the form of takedowns or punches. This one should be close, but I expect Rivera’s strategic intelligence and accurate counterstriking to carry him to victory. The pick is Rivera by unanimous decision.

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