Matches to Make After PFL 7

Normally, there is a significant input from the writer playing matchmaker for these columns. However, with the Professional Fighters League’s playoff setup, we know exactly which two bouts will be fought for the lightweight and light heavyweight championships. Thus, let’s examine them in more depth than usual as preparation begins for the Nov. 25 finals:

Updated #PFLPlayoffs lightweight bracket: pic.twitter.com/eafg9kPJTS

— Sherdog (@sherdogdotcom) August 6, 2022

2022 PFL Lightweight Championship

#2 | Olivier Aubin-Mercier (16-5, 5-0 PFL) vs. #4 | Steven Ray (25-10, 2-1 PFL)

The Ultimate Fighting Championship definitely made a mistake letting Olivier Aubin-Mercier go. After an impressive four-fight winning streak in that organization that included a finish of Drew Dober and a split decision over Anthony Rocco Martin, he lost three competitive decisions in a row in 2018 and 2019 against Alexander Hernandez, Gilbert Burns and Arman Tsarukyan, which looks even more forgivable now than it did back then. Since leaving the organization, Aubin-Mercier has improved and looked amazing while doing so, going a perfect 5-0 in the PFL against solid competition in former Bellator MMA title challenger Marcin Held, fellow UFC veteran Darrell Horcher, and former PFL champions Natan Schulte and Raush Manfio. He most dominated Alex Martinez in the semifinals at PFL 7, including dropping him twice with left crosses. Only a late signing prevented him from competing in the 2021 PFL tournament, and he is eager to make up for it this year.

I doubt the UFC has similar regrets about Ray. He is a tough, crafty veteran, which has allowed him to win some fights where he has a deficiency in talent, like his last fight in the UFC against Michael Johnson. However, that can only go so far. He is 2-1 in the PFL, clearly defeated by the same Martinez who Aubin-Mercier just beat 30-25 on my scorecard, but he has two victories over Anthony Pettis, including a 29-28 decision at PFL 7. It’s important to note how he attained this win. Pettis actually dominated the striking throughout the contest, but Ray got takedowns in the first and second rounds and did just enough with them to take each stanza. The problem? Aubin-Mercier is a vastly better grappler than Pettis. Not only will Ray be unable to take him down, but Aubin-Mercier will likely be able to get the Scotsman to the ground. In the striking department, Aubin-Mercier has a big advantage. Ray’s southpaw stance does not figure to give the Canadian problems since Aubin-Mercier is left-handed, too. Honestly, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Ray can win. He will need his opponent to make a major mistake and capitalize decisively or else hope “The Canadian Gangster” tires in the fourth and fifth rounds in a way we’ve never seen fade in a three-rounder. Aubin-Mercier should be a huge favorite in the final.

Updated #PFLPlayoffs lightweight bracket: pic.twitter.com/eafg9kPJTS

— Sherdog (@sherdogdotcom) August 6, 2022

2022 PFL Light Heavyweight Championship

#1 | Rob Wilkinson (16-2, 3-0 PFL) vs. #2 | Omari Akhmedov (24-7-1, 3-1 PFL)

On paper, Wilkinson has been on fire since being released by the UFC after losing to Israel Adesanya, going a perfect 6-0 with six finishes. The reality is a little more complex. Wilkinson was a big favorite for all those matches, and while he has developed some basic but powerful boxing—he used it to stop Delan Monte in a little over a minute and a half at PFL 7—he is still lacking in many standup skills, especially with regards to defense. Against Monte, Wilkinson ate several flush punches and was hurt himself, as he sticks his chin straight up in the air, the lack of mobility making it an easy target to hit. It did not matter against Monte, who looked an entire weight class smaller and was a +300 underdog, but it might against a better opponent.

Akhmedov has gone 3-1 since being released from the UFC after a split decision loss to Brad Tavares. However, he has won his last three bouts and done so against better competition than Wilkinson, including in fights where he was an underdog. That includes his clear decision victory over the previously unbeaten Joshua Silveira at PFL 7; Silveira was expected to overcome his American Top Team stablemate. Akhmedov does not punch as hard as Wilkinson does, but his boxing is more technical. Even more relevant, he has solid defense, with nice head movement, instincts and blocking ability, all of which Wilkinson lacks. Akhmedov can also kick competently; Wilkinson cannot. From the standpoint of grappling, Akhmedov can at least neutralize the Australian, considering he did so against a grappling ace in Silveira. There is always a worry about Akhmedov’s weak gas tank, especially over the five rounds of a championship fight, but he managed his energy well over 15 minutes against Silveira. Moreover, there is a similar concern with Wilkinson, who, despite being a former middleweight, is absolutely huge at 205 pounds and fights at a break-neck pace. If he doesn’t get the early finish, he can gas, too, as he did against Adesanya. Wilkinson can land a knockout punch or perhaps win out in later rounds with cardio, but I’m siding with the far more skilled, defensively sound fighter here. Akhmedov should be a considerable favorite.